Historically, bull markets have “officially” begun once the cryptocurrency closes above this moving average. A successful close above $81,700 could confirm a new bullish phase and open the door for another major leg up. However, its continuous inability to break through could lead to a longer consolidation phase or even to a more profound decline.
On the downside, bitcoin’s rally won’t be confirmed by simply moving past the $81,700 obstacle, as there are a few others on the way up. At first, CryptoQuant found the 3x Metcalfe valuation band, which sits at $83,600 and stands as the next big resistance. This level halted $BTC in May and has previously coincided with important cycle turning points.
If taken down, there’s one more at $88,700, which is the trader realized-price upper band. History shows that selling has intensified once the cryptocurrency approaches this line because active traders begin sitting on increasingly large unrealized profits.
539K $BTC
CryptoQuant noted that the most immediate problem is considerably closer as long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 units between $77,100 and $80,200 throughout the year, creating what the analysts described as the heaviest nearby on-chain supply wall.
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Bitcoin would need to absorb this supply before making another convincing attempt north, while the downside is better defined. The 200-day MA around $70,000 represents the first major technical support, followed by another substantial on-chain cluster between $62,000 and $65,000, where approximately 476,000 $BTC were accumulated this year.
Overall, CQ’s analysts are still bullish on $BTC, but under one critical condition: the asset must clear $81,700 soon, then $83,600, and eventually $88,700 before the recovery can develop into a more profound rally.
cryptopotato.com
