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The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, made a significant jump in August, climbing from around $62,000 to over $80,000.
While this rise increased expectations that July’s $58,000 level was the bottom for $BTC, the recent drop has reignited debates about whether $58,000 was the bottom of the current market cycle.
According to a seasoned analyst, on-chain data indicates that investors made far fewer purchases than expected during the decline.
Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Uncertainty and Willy Woo’s Critical Assessment!
At this point, on-chain analyst Willy Woo, referring to the HODL Waves indicator, said that relatively few investors bought during the July decline and that the purchases may have come from a single large investor (a whale).
Woo noted that when Bitcoin fell to around $57,800 on July 1st, the share of $BTC that had been inactive for one to seven days in the total supply was only 1.97 percent, and that this rate increased to 2.35 percent on July 5th.
The HODL Waves indicator is used to track the behavior of new buyers entering the market after sharp price drops.
At this point, Woo noted that in previous significant Bitcoin dips, investors reacted more quickly to price drops by buying heavily, but such a movement was not seen in July. He stated that on-chain activity was relatively limited, suggesting that dip buyers were slowly accumulating and that the purchases may have been driven by a single large investor, which is an unusually rare occurrence.
According to the analyst, this suggests that buying at the bottom may have been slow and limited, or even that a single large investor may have been influential in the market.
Therefore, the analyst believes that the $58,000 region in July cannot be considered a definitive cycle bottom, and expects Bitcoin’s subsequent price movement to determine whether that level is truly a long-term base.
Bitcoin Demand is Recovering, But It’s Still Not Enough for a Bull Market!
While there are signs of recovery in demand in the Bitcoin market, on-chain data does not yet confirm a strong and sustainable bull market.
CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno noted that Bitcoin’s “apparent demand” indicator has returned to positive territory, pointing out that the supply-demand imbalance in the market has been gradually improving recently. However, according to Moreno, this recovery is not yet enough to say that a new and strong bull market has begun for Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, the main problem is that the recovery in demand has not yet translated into a strong capital inflow. Moreno argues that the current demand recovery resembles the levels seen during the limited recovery period of 2024. However, this picture is far from the strong and sustained demand increase that supported the Bitcoin price in the latter part of 2024 and 2025.
In context, Moreno notes that the Bitcoin market is currently going through a stabilization phase where the decline in demand has stalled, rather than a widespread surge in demand. In other words, selling pressure in the market is decreasing, but a strong enough buyer base has not yet formed to fuel a new upward wave. Therefore, for the current recovery to turn into a true bull market, stronger and more sustained capital inflows are needed.
*This is not investment advice.