What Are the Bull and Bear Scenarios for Bitcoin? Where Could the Price Go?

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency world, compared bull and bear scenarios for Bitcoin ($BTC) in detail in his new analysis video.

Cowen, who examined on-chain data, technical indicators, market sentiment, and cyclical historical data, stated that the current picture shows strong signals supporting both bulls and bears.

Cowen, highlighting the bullish scenario, stated that $BTC is already giving several signals pointing to a cycle bottom. In particular, technical indicators such as the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to its historical lows, the significant cooling on the monthly RSI side, and the recent Golden Cross strengthen the bullish outlook. Furthermore, the fact that long-term investors’ (LTH) accumulation levels are hovering near historical cycle lows is also among the factors supporting a potential bottom formation.

On the other hand, the analyst added that the historical data supporting a bearish scenario has not yet been completely erased. He pointed out that critical on-chain metrics such as Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and Market Cap/Thermocap ratio have not yet fallen to the extremely low levels seen in past bear market lows. Furthermore, the fact that Bitcoin has not yet dropped below the price reached in this cycle, and that whale activity remains weaker compared to past lows, suggests that the risk of a decline is not entirely off the table.

Cowen stated that the 50-week moving average will play a key role in determining the market’s future direction, noting that weekly closes above this level, currently around $80,000, would solidify the bullish scenario. He warned that a rejection at this level could lead to a search for a new low in the last quarter of the year (October or November). In a potentially deeper pullback, Bitcoin could test the $53,000 price level or, in a more extreme scenario, the $37,000-$38,000 range. The analyst added that these sharp declines are not a primary scenario, but rather a risk scenario that needs to be carefully monitored.

*This is not investment advice.