Will Bitcoin Go Up or Down From Here? Technical Analysis Published

Cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode stated that while Bitcoin continues its sideways movement around $79,100, the market is giving conflicting signals. According to the company, institutional demand, capital inflows, and increased leverage in the futures market, coupled with cooling momentum in the spot market, are keeping Bitcoin in a delicate balance.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is trading around $79,100, up approximately 0.7% on a weekly basis. While the price has largely remained flat since the $77,300-$81,300 range at the end of August, a noticeable weakening has been observed in spot momentum indicators. Spot momentum has recently declined by approximately 30%, falling to 54.6, and the indicator has returned to the middle of the statistical bands.

While spot trading volume remained largely unchanged at approximately $3.5 billion, the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) recovered from -$84.9 million to -$29.6 million. Glassnode argued, however, that the selling pressure did not translate into strong buying appetite, and that the pressure in the spot market only eased.

In the futures market, open positions reportedly increased by 1% to $37.1 billion. Despite funding payments falling by 32.8% to $1.3 million, the increase in positions indicates that leverage usage in the market continues to grow. Open positions in the perpetual futures market also increased by 2.1% to $40.1 billion.

It was noted that bullish positioning was also observed in the options market. The decline in the volatility spread to -20.9% and the decrease in the 25-delta skew indicator from 0.79% to -2.05% indicate that implied volatility remains low compared to actual volatility, and that demand for call options is strong.

Glassnode also reported a renewed acceleration in demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Net inflows to the funds reached $681.2 million, significantly exceeding the previous period’s inflow of $247.8 million. The ETFs’ assets under management also increased by 19.2% to approximately $12.1 billion.

On-chain data showed calmer activity. Asset-adjusted transfer volume fell 12.8% to $5.0 billion, and transaction fees decreased by 4.8% to $213,000. The number of active addresses remained relatively flat at around 635,000.

Glassnode noted that capital inflows continue to be one of the strongest indicators of the market, reporting that the monthly realized market capitalization change accelerated to 0.8% and the share of “hot capital” rose to 30.1%. According to the company, this indicates that short-term and price-sensitive capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin network, despite the price remaining flat.

*This is not investment advice.