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Bitcoin ($BTC) surged following dovish statements from the Fed. Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 as expectations of a rate hike diminished after Fed Board member Christopher Waller indicated he might support keeping interest rates unchanged in September.
Waller stated today that, barring any unexpected increases in upcoming inflation data, the Fed favors maintaining current interest rate levels at its September 15-16 meeting.
While acknowledging that inflation is still “significantly above” the Fed’s 2 percent target, Waller said recent data indicates that the disinflation process is beginning to strengthen again. Waller also stated that the impact of tariffs on prices remains limited and that rising energy prices have not created significant inflationary pressure in other areas of the economy.
Waller summarized his approach by saying, “Let’s give disinflation a chance. We can wait one meeting,” arguing that a 25 basis point rate hike in a single meeting would not quickly bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2 percent target. However, Waller also emphasized that he could support a rate hike if inflation accelerates again in August.
The Likelihood of a Fed Interest Rate Hike Has Sharply Dropped
Following Waller’s remarks, there was a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Fed’s September meeting.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September fell from 63.2% on Wednesday to 48.4% following Waller’s remarks. The probability of rates remaining in the current 3.50-3.75% range rose to 51.6%.
Waller’s approach differs from the more hawkish message delivered by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at last week’s Jackson Hole meeting. Warsh had stated that the lower inflation figures seen in recent months did not provide sufficient evidence of a lasting improvement in underlying price trends.
One of the most critical indicators the Fed will be watching before its September meeting will be the August consumer inflation figures, to be released on September 11. Waller added that the interest rate decision will largely depend on the upcoming inflation data.
Bitcoin Reaches $80,800
The decline in expectations of interest rate hikes has increased demand for risky assets, and the cryptocurrency market has reacted strongly to these developments.
Bitcoin has risen by approximately 4.3% in the last 24 hours, reaching $81,300. $BTC’s market capitalization has reached nearly $1.62 trillion, while its 24-hour trading volume has approached $33 billion.
The rise wasn’t limited to Bitcoin alone. Ethereum (ETH) surged nearly 4% to around $2,495, while BNB gained 4.7% and Solana (SOL) rose 4.6%. XRP, meanwhile, stood out among cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with an 8.6% increase, reaching $1.45.
*This is not investment advice.