Have the Recent Rallies in Bitcoin Triggered a Bull Market, or Are We Still Waiting?

Bitcoin’s nearly 40% rise from its lows in late June has reignited debates about whether a new bull cycle has begun in the cryptocurrency market.

Frontier-tech investor Didier and macro hedge fund portfolio manager Griffin Ardern discussed Bitcoin’s recent recovery and how the market might shape up going forward. While the two largely agreed on the dynamics behind the current rally, they offered differing opinions on whether Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.

Didier considers Bitcoin’s significant break above its 200-day moving average a major technical signal. He notes that the relatively low market positioning and the high volume of short positions could also support the rise, suggesting that the current movement could indicate the early stages of a new bull market.

Griffin Ardern, however, takes a more cautious approach. According to Ardern, Bitcoin is still in the final stages of a prolonged bear cycle, and clearer signals from dollar liquidity, US fiscal policy, and the Treasury bond market are needed before a sustained bull market can be discussed.

Both market experts agree that the recent rise in Bitcoin was not solely due to fundamental factors. They cite several key reasons for the price movement, including investors not having taken sufficient positions in the market before the rise, the closing of short positions, and changes in expectations regarding the US fiscal outlook.

However, Didier and Ardern differ on the trajectory of US Treasury bond yields and the outlook for global liquidity. In particular, developments in the bond market are noted as potentially decisive in terms of the size of capital flowing into risky assets.

The assessments also examined the balance sheet structure and Bitcoin position of Strategy, led by Michael Saylor. In addition, the possibility of capital flowing from the increasingly crowded AI-themed trading market into the cryptocurrency market was considered a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin rise.

*This is not investment advice.