Bitcoin to $300,000 Is Possible Only If Quantum Problem Is Solved: Charles Edwards

Investment bank Bernstein today released a major report forecasting Bitcoin's rise to $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029, driven by the sovereign debt crisis and institutional demand.

However, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards argues that this historic scenario is realistic only if Bitcoin Core developers implement quantum-resistant cryptography in time.

According to his estimates, fear of this threat is already artificially depressing the asset's current price by 30%, creating a hidden "risk discount."

Institutional funds, which provide the capital inflows in Bernstein's model, are extremely sensitive to protocol security. Analysts have previously warned that between 20% and 30% of all existing BTC is directly exposed to Shor's quantum algorithm. This includes early-era wallets, including Satoshi Nakamoto's coins, whose public keys are exposed on the blockchain.

This month, the Ethereum Foundation already revised its Layer 1 protection plan, abandoning the vulnerable Poseidon2 function in favor of SHA-256 and BLAKE, with an upgrade targeted for 2029.

Bitcoin Core developers are currently discussing BIP-360, which proposes post-quantum addresses based on the ML-DSA algorithm, and the more radical BIP-361, which would forcibly freeze vulnerable legacy coins five years after the upgrade. To accelerate this work, Galaxy Digital allocated $5 million through its Bitcoin Quantum Readiness initiative.

What's Bitcoin's fair value?

While Bernstein's report today models a supercycle extending three years into the future, current Glassnode on-chain data offers a more pragmatic assessment of Bitcoin's medium-term prospects.

According to MVRV pricing band charts, the mathematically justified peak of Bitcoin's current cycle is now located between $134,000 and $180,000. To initiate this move, the market must overcome key resistance at $70,920, where the main cost basis of existing positions is concentrated and sellers traditionally become active.

Thus, Bernstein's macroeconomic optimism today runs into on-chain resistance near $71,000, while the long-term supercycle toward $300,000 now directly depends on whether Bitcoin is prepared to undertake large-scale cryptographic reform.