ETFs Are Buying, But Who Is Selling? Inside Bitcoin’s Tug-of-War

Bitcoin moved toward the top of its range last week as institutional demand through U.S. spot ETFs strengthened. Cooler employment data reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, but persistent selling pressure kept the move contained.

The stronger ETF demand was reflected in $865.3 million of net inflows across five straight sessions, the funds’ strongest weekly showing since April. According to a recent Bitfinex Alpha report, the funds absorbed about 13,300 $BTC during the period. That was more than four times the roughly 3,150 $BTC newly created by the network.

ETF Inflows Return, But Sellers Push Back

BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for much of the ETF activity. Ether-focused ETFs also recorded $243.7 million in inflows, extending their weekly streak and showing that demand was not limited to Bitcoin.

The renewed demand came as broader risk assets also moved higher amid easing tensions and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 3.58% for the week, while Bitcoin gained slightly more than 2%, indicating that other sources of supply continued to weigh on its price.

One notable source of that supply came from Strategy, which disclosed the sale of 1,638 $BTC for approximately $104.7 million. The company sold the coins at an average price of about $63,957 and said it would use the proceeds for preferred dividends and a discounted share repurchase.

Strategy’s sale adds to a broader supply overhang visible on-chain around Bitcoin’s current trading range. An estimated 1.79 million $BTC have cost bases between $62,000 and $65,000, creating potential selling pressure as the price moves through the band.

Why the Macro Picture Remains Mixed

U.S. labor data added to the macro backdrop, with July payrolls falling by 23,000 and earlier figures revised lower. The three-month average job gain dropped to about 20,000, while unemployment reached 4.1% as participation declined.

Initial jobless claims remained low, indicating that the labor market was cooling rather than collapsing. Futures markets lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 43.9%, while Treasury yields and the dollar eased.

However, long-term borrowing costs stayed high, with the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% amid inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing. Bitfinex said Bitcoin could break above $65,000 if ETF demand remains strong while inflation and long-term yields ease.