en.bitcoinsistemi.com
According to Glassnode’s latest assessment, the US consumer price index data for July did not significantly alter the overall market outlook. Core inflation fell to 2.5%, while headline inflation remained flat.
The Fed’s effective interest rate has remained largely unchanged since December, continuing to be more than one percentage point above core inflation. This indicates that real interest rates are still in a restrictive zone.
According to Glassnode, the most noteworthy point was not the data itself, but the market’s reaction. Despite inflation remaining under control and no signal of further monetary policy tightening, Bitcoin ($BTC) saw limited gains while stocks retreated.
The company stated that while such a macroeconomic picture might normally be viewed positively for risky assets, Bitcoin’s inability to generate upward momentum in the upcoming sessions could confirm a lack of demand.
Glassnode noted that despite a recovery in the last two months, consumer confidence in the US remains near its lowest levels in a decade. In contrast, the US stock market reached a new record high on August 7th and continues to trade near that peak.
According to the analysis, consumers shifting from cash to assets due to high living costs and expectations of an economic slowdown may be one of the underlying reasons for this apparent paradox. AI-related stocks, in particular, are benefiting strongly from this capital flow.
Bitcoin, however, remains outside of this rotation. Glassnode noted that $BTC is trading at roughly half the level of its October 2025 peak and has lagged significantly behind stocks throughout the summer months.
According to the company, capital is currently following already rising assets. Therefore, record highs in stock prices provide limited support for cryptocurrency unless capital redirects back to Bitcoin.
Glassnode stated that a potential reversal should first be seen in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, but current data does not yet indicate such a change.
According to on-chain data, the Bitcoin price is trading just above the Median Realized Price, which is around $63,000. This level is considered a crucial reference point that splits the cost basis of circulating Bitcoins in half.
Bitcoin is also trading below the Short-Term Investor Cost Base of $68,700. According to Glassnode, this level, which represents the average cost for investors who have recently entered the market, indicates that this group of investors is in the loss zone.
Historically, short-term investors who are in a losing position are more likely to sell during price increases.
Glassnode noted that the Bitcoin price has been stuck in the $63,000-$68,700 range for about three months, and that these two key cost levels are gradually converging as volatility decreases.
Further down, the total Realized Price is approximately $52,800. This indicates that the general Bitcoin investor base is still significantly profitable.
According to Glassnode, a sustained break above $68,700 could signal a significant upward move, bringing short-term investors back into profit. Conversely, a loss of the median price around $63,000 could weaken strong technical support levels, potentially leading back to the June lows.
One of the most important indicators highlighted by Glassnode was the sharp contraction in spot market volumes.
Bitcoin spot exchange volume, measured on a coin-by-coin basis, has fallen to its lowest level since the data series began in 2019. Even excluding Binance data, trading volumes are reportedly approaching the lows seen during the 2023 bear market.
Glassnode stated that no period in the last seven years has seen so little Bitcoin change hands, and that this is one of the clearest indicators of market apathy.
However, low liquidity also increases the risk of volatility. In a market with extremely low trading volume, limited new demand can quickly push prices up, while small amounts of selling pressure can cause sharper declines.
According to the company, such low participation levels don’t usually last long, and the current pattern represents a classic squeeze before a larger volatility move.
Glassnode described the current market structure as a “late bear market squeeze,” highlighting an unusual situation: a significant portion of investors are preparing for a recovery, but the demand to drive it has not yet entered the market.
The indicators on the selling side are reportedly relatively positive. While the supply in profit is hovering near historical market lows, indicators of seller exhaustion are approaching cycle lows. The decrease in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges also suggests that selling pressure is weakening.
In contrast, there is no significant strengthening on the buyer side. ETF inflows remain quite limited, while spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Bitcoin also continues to lag behind the US stock market, which is at record highs.
According to Glassnode, the regaining of the $68,700 level with increasing trading volume and strengthening ETF inflows could indicate the start of a real recovery in the Bitcoin market.
Conversely, the inability of prices to generate growth despite positive inflation data, or the loss of the $58,500 low, could invalidate the current market floor scenario.
*This is not investment advice.