ambcrypto.com
The 30-day demand for Bitcoin [$BTC] is on the way back up after the extreme drop in demand it experienced due to its recent price decline. The metric has now turned positive near 25,000 $BTC, reversing from deeply negative levels recorded around June.
That trend indicates that capital is returning, even if demand still isn’t as high as we’ve seen during prior recovery periods. More importantly, it appears derivatives are doing most of the heavy lifting currently.
Still, there may be an environment developing where we could see something like what occurred in May’s move to $82,000.
Normally, Futures demand provides initial momentum as traders rebuild leveraged exposure and respond to improving prices. Yet previous rallies became more sustainable when spot buying expanded alongside Futures activity.
Thus, unless both Spot and Futures increase in demand, derivatives will likely continue to artificially inflate prices upward and then just as quickly reverse downward.
Bitcoin now needs stronger spot participation to turn this early rebound into sustained buying pressure.
Bitcoin recovery faces key resistance
That early demand recovery now faces a familiar test as Bitcoin approaches the cost basis of recent buyers. $BTC trades near $65,000, while the 1–3 month realized price sits around $67,000.
This aligns with AMBCrypto’s earlier report of a $65,000–$67,000 resistance zone, where limited sustained demand has constrained recovery attempts.
Although $763 million in ETF inflows and HODLer accumulation provide support, LTH SOPR remains below 1. Recent buyers could also sell near breakeven, adding supply around $67,000–$67,500.
Beyond that, the 3–6 month cohort near $72,000 creates another hurdle.
The large amount of overhead supply needs to be absorbed by new spot buyers before a sustainable recovery can begin.
If broken, then overcoming the $67,300 price level will create a more favorable structural environment for the market. Similarly, if $72,000 can be reclaimed and held for an extended period of time, then the momentum from the futures-led rebound will gain further strength.
MARA limits Bitcoin sell pressure
While Bitcoin still needs stronger demand to absorb overhead selling, pressure could also depend on whether major holders add fresh supply.
MARA is limiting that risk by pledging 18,750 $BTC, worth about $1.2 billion, instead of selling to raise $600 million.
That shift matters after it sold 23,093 $BTC during H1 2026. By borrowing, MARA keeps those coins off the spot market. Still, with 53% of its June holdings pledged, deeper price weakness could eventually trigger forced selling.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin demand has turned positive, but derivatives-led buying leaves the recovery dependent on stronger Spot participation.
- $BTC must clear $67K–$72K resistance, while MARA’s borrowing limits immediate corporate sell pressure but adds collateral risk.