Why Has Bitcoin Been Unable to Make the Expected Surge? There Is Both Positive and Negative Data

Blockchain analytics company Glassnode reported that Bitcoin retreated to around $62,600 after failing to sustain itself above $66,000. According to the company, weak demand in the spot market and the defensive positions of derivatives investors increased pressure on the price, while the resilience of long-term investors, rising network activity, and renewed ETF inflows continued to support the market.

Glassnode’s report stated that Bitcoin failed to sustain the recovery that began after surpassing the $66,000 level and retreated again from the $65,000 region. The company noted that current price movements reflect a weakening of spot market momentum, and that ongoing net selling pressure and low trading volume are keeping Bitcoin in a consolidation phase lacking significant breakout potential.

While the total amount of open positions in derivatives markets decreased, funding rates in perpetual futures contracts were seen to rise again. Although active selling volume decreased somewhat, it was noted that investors in the options market maintained a cautious stance.

According to the report, the widening of the 25-degree delta skew indicator revealed increased investor demand for protection against price declines. The continued decline in speculative short positions also indicated that risk appetite in the market remained limited.

In contrast, a more positive picture emerged in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. The recovery in both net money inflows and trading volumes over the past week indicated that institutional investors were beginning to create Bitcoin positions again through regulated investment instruments.

A remarkable resurgence was also observed in on-chain data. Daily active addresses and asset-adjusted transaction volume exceeded the upper limit of Glassnode’s statistical range, revealing a significant increase in usage and economic activity on the Bitcoin network. It was also noted that the limited increase in new capital inflows eased the pressure created by capital outflows from the market.

An examination of investor demographics revealed that the ratio of short-term to long-term investors has remained historically close to low levels. Glassnode stated that this indicates long-term Bitcoin holders have maintained strong belief despite price declines.

However, the overall profitability level of the market continues to decline. As the proportion of profitable Bitcoin supply approaches cyclical lows, a tendency towards cut-loss and risk reduction in investors’ spending behavior is becoming increasingly evident.

Glassnode concluded that the Bitcoin market is currently in a transitional phase. While the stable stance of long-term investors, increasing on-chain activity, and a recovery in ETF demand provide structural support, valuation pressure, insufficient spot demand, and defensive positions in derivatives markets continue to limit risk appetite.

*This is not investment advice.