Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom, or Is a Shakeout on the Way? What About XRP?

Cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment shared critical signals regarding the Bitcoin and altcoin markets in its new analysis evaluating recent market developments and on-chain data.

According to Santiment analysts, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV (Market Value – Realized Value) ratio falling to -26% indicates that long-term investors are significantly at a loss, while historically pointing to bottom formations and long-term buying opportunities.

When the MVRV data shared by Santiment is detailed, it is seen that the average loss for investors who have held Bitcoin for the past year is around 26%. Looking at historical cycles (such as the 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 crash), this level of MVRV falling into deep negative territory corresponds to periods when long-term risk decreases and the search for a bottom strengthens. While the short-term 30-day MVRV is hovering near the break-even point at +1.1%, analysts add that although there is no clear directional signal in the short term, the current picture in a 1-year perspective represents the bottoms before bull cycles.

On-chain data reveals significant differences in investor behavior based on wallet size. Whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 $BTC continued their accumulation trend, adding approximately 18,500 $BTC to their wallets in the last 10 days. On the other hand, smaller wallet holders (individual investors) continue to buy the dips; however, analysts warn that this high buying appetite on the individual side could occasionally create a risk of a final “shakeout” or correction in the market.

The altcoin market presents a mixed picture. Ethereum’s 365-day MVRV is hovering around -33%, but the recovery over the past month, coupled with overly optimistic investor sentiment on social media, carries the risk of a short-term correction. XRP, on the other hand, is in the oversold zone with a 30-day MVRV of -57.5% and a 365-day MVRV of -45.5%, signaling a strong rebound in the medium to long term. Social media volume and optimism are rising for Solana, while investor sentiment remains calmer for Cardano.

The future direction of Bitcoin and altcoins is being determined not only by on-chain metrics but also by macroeconomic and legal developments. The Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decision and upcoming policies are increasing expectations of market volatility, while uncertainties surrounding the Clarity Act process in the US Congress continue to put pressure on pricing.

*This is not investment advice.