NYDIG report says Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 by October

Bitcoin has underperformed against other high-risk assets so far in 2026, raising concerns among investors about the possibility of further price declines in the coming months. Market research from financial firm NYDIG indicates that supply factors, rather than risk sentiment, are weighing on the leading cryptocurrency’s performance this year. The report points to a potential cycle low near $38,000 by October, if historical market patterns repeat themselves.

Bitcoin lags tech stocks, faces new cycle reset

While Bitcoin previously moved in tandem with technology stocks, 2026 has seen a stark divergence. Artificial intelligence-focused equities have posted substantial gains, but crypto markets, led by Bitcoin, have experienced significant losses. At the time of the NYDIG report, Bitcoin traded at $64,809 — nearly 30% lower since the beginning of the year and close to 50% below the October 2025 peak of $126,080.

NYDIG, a financial services firm specializing in Bitcoin products and research, noted that this downturn has rekindled discussions about the four-year market cycle often referenced in cryptocurrency circles. The firm highlighted similarities between the current contraction and previous bear market periods in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Although the trajectory has not precisely mirrored prior cycles, the timing and structure have drawn comparisons among analysts.

NYDIG determined that Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance ranks it as the worst-performing asset across major categories, lagging even behind US treasuries, silver, and major fiat currencies such as the Swiss Franc.

The report suggested that if the current downturn resembles previous cycles, a further decline toward $38,000–$39,000 could be plausible. However, NYDIG also pointed out that volatility was at historic lows in 2025, which could mean a less severe correction than observed in older bear markets.

NYDIG’s research noted that Bitcoin’s recent drawdown is “bringing the 4-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly.”

Bitcoin’s evolving role and the impact of new regulation

NYDIG reported an increase in Bitcoin’s correlation with gold during the second quarter of 2026. Both assets experienced coordinated sell-offs, reflecting shifting investor behavior. Historically, Bitcoin has been compared to gold as a “digital gold,” but 2025 saw stronger ties between the cryptocurrency and US technology stocks.

In addition, NYDIG observed that other commodities also saw declines in the second quarter, with the so-called “debasement trade” — a strategy where investors seek assets that can hedge against depreciating fiat currencies — losing momentum.

Mini dictionary: CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal aiming to establish clear regulations for the digital asset market structure in the United States. Its passage is seen as a potentially transformative event for both Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

In a separate report, Bitwise, a major crypto asset manager, noted that Bitcoin ended the second quarter of 2026 in its deepest and longest downturn since the previous bear market. However, the firm views the newly enacted crypto-friendly legislation and improved industry fundamentals as possible catalysts for recovery.

NYDIG emphasized that the passing of the US market-structure CLARITY Act stands as a significant development for the digital asset sector. According to the report, the Act’s immediate price impact may be more pronounced for altcoins and crypto equities, but the broader regulatory clarity should benefit the entire industry, including Bitcoin.

The NYDIG report emphasized, “For Bitcoin, CLARITY’s direct price impact is less significant than for altcoins and crypto equities, but the investment implication remains material because a clearer U.S. market-structure regime would benefit the entire industry.”