Unpopular Opinion: Bitcoin Faces Relentless Headwinds, Yet It Refuses to Break

Bitcoin peaked at over $126,000 last October, which now appears to be a lifetime ago since it trades below $65,000, representing a near 50% decline.

Although this sounds pretty painful, and it is, especially for those who entered at $120,000+, the reality might be more positive. Here’s why.

Is $BTC Doing Better?

While most analysts are still focused on determining whether the cryptocurrency has bottomed yet or there’s another leg down in the cards, Michaël van de Poppe noted that the asset holds the 200-Week Moving Average and “refuses to drop deeper.” Moreover, he believes there’s not enough sell pressure at the moment despite all the negative developments surrounding the broader market (and mostly $BTC) ecosystem.

First, he mentioned the war in Iran. The conflict that started on February 28 was supposed to have finished by now following the initial reports and comments by Trump. Progress was seemingly made over the past week as the POTUS announced a deal with Iran, which both sides confirmed. However, they failed to sign it, and the negotiations in Switzerland reportedly broke down on Sunday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Trump is back to making big threats.

Second, van de Poppe outlined the growing industry fears about STRC – Strategy’s shares used to raise funds and buy more $BTC. The shares trade well below their par level, and there are some speculations that Strategy could become this cycle’s FTX or at least would have to sell a significant portion of its bitcoin fortune.

Third, there are the massive net outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs. As we have repeatedly reported, investors are on a substantial selling spree, as the funds have ended in the red for six straight weeks, during which the cumulative total has declined by about $5 billion.

Lastly, the popular analyst highlighted the macroeconomic inflationary topic, as US inflation (and in many other regions) is increasing again, and there is a lack of rate cuts from the Fed. Furthermore, the central bank’s new Chairman remained highly hawkish after the most recent FOMC meeting.

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We Are Done Already?

Given the aforementioned factors, $BTC’s 50% drop from its top might not seem as bad as many think, especially since it has been able to hold above the $60,000 support. Consequently, van de Poppe noted that this is a sign that “we’re done already.” Additionally, he believes many altcoins are “showing resilience for the past month,” which is another “great” signal.

My thesis is:

If #Bitcoin holds the 200-Week MA and refuses to drop deeper, there’s clearly not enough sell pressure despite:
– Iran war
– STRC Michael Saylor doomposting about FTX
– Outflows of the ETF
– Macroeconomic inflationary topics and no rate cuts

That’s the sign that… https://t.co/nVCk9CMIsL

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 20, 2026