“If the US stock market drops in 2026 for a typical midterm election year, I fully expect Bitcoin to be closer to $10,000 into year-end than where it is now,” McGlone told Coinpedia.
“All markets are the most linked now in history. Plunging Bitcoin and cryptos are leading indicators. It is a space of unlimited supply seeking a low-price cure, of which I expect will be much lower than current levels,” he added.
But why?
A US stock market decline in a midterm election year, combined with Bitcoin’s historically high correlation to equities, would drag prices toward that long-term average. The S&P 500 at 2.5 times GDP is a metric McGlone has repeatedly flagged as unsustainable.
Tether Is the Real Story
When asked which altcoin has caught his attention, McGlone bypassed every Layer 1 and DeFi protocol entirely. His answer was Tether.
“The most significant trend in cryptos has been Tether flippening everything. It flippened Ether a bit on June 11 and I expect the Tether trend to continue, flippening Ether this year and eventually Bitcoin, which might be near $10,000,” he said.
The observation reflects a broader point McGlone has been making about the crypto ecosystem. The US dollar, deployed through Tether, has effectively become the base layer of the entire crypto economy, with stablecoin adoption outpacing speculative asset demand.
No Path Back to $100,000
Asked whether Bitcoin returns above $100,000 before the end of this cycle, McGlone was unambiguous.
“No. I expect Bitcoin’s low-price cure to occur near $10,000,” he said.
The prediction sits far outside mainstream consensus. Standard Chartered maintains a $100,000 year-end target. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called the $60,000 level a likely cycle bottom. McGlone’s framework sees those views as underestimating both the macro linkage between crypto and equities and the structural supply dynamics of a market where new tokens can be created without limit.
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