A Familiar Playbook
The price move fits a pattern that has defined Bitcoin trading through the months-long U.S.-Iran conflict. The cryptocurrency has tracked geopolitical risk closely, selling off on escalation and recovering on de-escalation. When Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes in late March, Bitcoin surged above $71,000. When ceasefire talks last produced a deal, the token spiked on short liquidations. Both of those moves faded when hostilities resumed.
Thursday’s rally came after Trump had threatened earlier in the day to hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” including seizing the country’s Kharg Island oil hub, Bloomberg reported. The strike cancellation reversed that risk-off pressure across markets. Oil fell sharply on the news, with Brent crude retreating toward the low $90s from highs above $91.
Deal Skepticism Remains
Iranian officials had not publicly confirmed any agreement as of Thursday afternoon. Iran’s national security adviser said there would be no ceasefire without restraining Israeli actions in Lebanon, while Israel said the ceasefire did not apply to Lebanon at all, per NBC News. Earlier ceasefire agreements in this conflict collapsed within days.
Trump added that “The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized,” with the “time and place of the signing to be announced shortly,” per Fox News. The Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes, remained subject to disruption risk pending a signed agreement.
Bitcoin remains roughly 49% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, per CoinGecko, with the Iran conflict serving as a persistent drag on risk appetite across crypto markets throughout the spring.