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Prediction markets are pricing an aggressive move lower for crypto, with the most-backed bets calling for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 in June.
Crypto has also taken over Polymarket activity to start the month, and on-chain signals from Bitcoin and Solana line up with the bearish calls.
Crypto Tops Prediction Market Volume to Start June
In Early June, crypto has quickly become the busiest corner of Polymarket. For the week of June 1, it drew about $341 million in notional volume. That figure is the total dollar value of all contracts traded.
That topped every other category, including sports near $215 million and politics near $59 million. Trader attention has clearly shifted to crypto after a quieter April and May.
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With crypto leading the volume, the specific bets reveal where that money is leaning.
Top Bitcoin Bets Target $60,000 in June and $55,000 This Year
The clearest signal sits in Polymarket’s market on what price Bitcoin will hit in June. The fastest-growing bet is Bitcoin below $60,000, now near 56% and up sharply on the week.
Lower strikes also drew money, with below $57,500 near 34% and below $55,000 near 21%. The flow leans firmly bearish for the near month.
On Kalshi, a separate market on how low Bitcoin goes this year tells a similar story. Below $60,000 sits near 81% and below $55,000 near 76% (aggressive growth), marking $55,000 as the downside zone traders watch.
These are crowd bets, not forecasts, so the next question is whether on-chain data backs them up.
On-Chain Data Shows Why Bitcoin Could Slide
On Binance, the $BTC/USDT liquidation map, which plots the size of leveraged positions that would be forced closed at each price, actually leans short. About $1.11 billion in short liquidation leverage sits above the current price near $63,689.
That heavy short side could fuel a squeeze higher, a real risk to the bearish bets. Still, about $336 million in long liquidation leverage remains below, clustered at $57,446. Therefore, if the $BTC price corrects even a bit from the current levels, the remaining longs can still get flushed, accelerating dip towards $60,000.
Enough long leverage still stays exposed to give the under-$60,000 bet a path.
The year-end bet near $55,000 has backing too. Glassnode puts Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis of all coins, near $53,796 while spot trades near $64,270.
Realized price has acted as a floor in past downturns, so the $55,000 zone looks like where a low could form.
Crypto starting June’s prediction markets’ journey on top stems from the fact that all these critical calls are not random but on-chain validated.
Solana’s prediction market call also has an on-chain backing.
Solana Bets Lean Bearish as Short-Term Holders Sit in Loss
Solana shows the same lean across prediction markets. Polymarket’s market on what price Solana will hit in June puts below $60 as the top outcome. That bet sits near 38% with the heaviest volume on the board.
On-chain data gives that bet a base. Glassnode’s Solana short-term holder NUPL, or net unrealized profit and loss, gauges whether recent buyers sit in profit or loss. It reads about -0.31 with SOL near $70.
That is firmly in the loss zone, yet above the three-month capitulation low near -0.53 from March. The gap suggests short-term holders could give up more before a bottom forms.
That leaves room for Solana to fall further. For now, $60 separates a fresh leg down from the first sign that sellers are done.