Bitcoin has also produced what analysts are identifying as a first upside impulse from the $74,500 support cluster, a tentative early signal that buyers are defending the level.
The support zone to hold on any further pullback sits between $74,860 and $76,200, defined by standard Fibonacci retracement levels. The first resistance that would confirm a reversal is $78,236. Breaking above that level would suggest the short-term bearish scenario is losing momentum.
Two Scenarios This Week
Bullish case: Bitcoin holds above $74,860, breaks above $78,236, and reclaims the 200-day moving average currently sitting around $79,100. From there the May highs around $82,000 become the next target. An extension toward $95,000 to $100,000 remains possible if the stock market continues higher and Bitcoin produces the right wave structure.
Bearish case: Bitcoin fails to hold $74,860 and produces one more leg lower, completing five waves down from the May highs. That would confirm a top is in and open the door to a more significant decline toward $56,000 initially, with $44,000 as a deeper target in the larger correction.
The Stock Market Connection
Analysts have consistently flagged the correlation between Bitcoin and equities as a key factor in the near-term outlook. As long as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue grinding higher from their March lows without a confirmed top, Bitcoin is unlikely to break down decisively. The C-wave decline analysts are watching for in Bitcoin will likely coincide with a meaningful correction in equity markets.
Until that correlation breaks, the stock market remains one of the most important charts to watch alongside Bitcoin itself.
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