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Bitcoin could cross the $136,000 price milestone if it followed the path set by the Nasdaq 100 index since its October 2025 all-time high.
For context, Bitcoin ($BTC) and the Nasdaq 100 index (^IXIC) both attained new all-time highs in October 2025 before facing a downtrend amid unfavorable macro and geopolitical factors. The Nasdaq-100 has since recovered its 2025 $ATH and pushed 8% above it.
Key Points
- Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index hit their respective all-time highs in October 2025 and entered a bear phase shortly after.
- The Nasdaq-100 has since reclaimed its previous peak and soared 8% above it.
- Bitcoin still trades 35% below its $126,000 peak from October 2025.
- If $BTC followed the path set by the Nasdaq-100, its price could soar to beyond $136,000.
Correlation Between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ
Notably, this assessment comes on the back of discussions surrounding what appears to be a price correlation between the Nasdaq 100 index, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial firms listed on Nasdaq, and Bitcoin since Q4 2024.
Specifically, the index and $BTC have continued to move side-by-side since they both dropped to new lows in late 2024. Both assets benefited from the market upsurge triggered by Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. The Nasdaq-100 eventually climbed to 22,222 points in mid-February, while $BTC rose above $109,000 in late January.
Interestingly, they both collapsed from these highs, recording local floors in April 2025 before recovering alongside each other as April progressed. Amid this rebound, they eventually claimed new all-time highs in October 2025, with the Nasdaq-100 hitting 26,182, while $BTC claimed $126,272.
Bitcoin Remains Down as Nasdaq-100 Recovers
Expectedly, when the Nasdaq-100 collapsed from its high, Bitcoin dropped alongside. Data from the chart indicates that the downturn spilled into this year, as Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index saw massive losses. The Nasdaq-100 eventually dropped to 22,841 last month, marking a 12.76% decline from its 2025 peak.
However, since hitting this floor, the Nasdaq index has continued to recover, posting five consecutive weekly gains. From this low, the Nasdaq-100 has gained 23.9%, recovering its 2025 $ATH and surpassing it by 8%.
As for Bitcoin, the crypto firstborn has also been on a recovery path, but it is still 35% below the October 2025 all-time high. $BTC has rebounded 25.7% from its March 2026 lows, but still needs to surge by about 55% more before it can reclaim the all-time high.
Bitcoin Price if It Follows the Nasdaq-100
Due to their close price correlation, multiple analysts believe Bitcoin remains on track to follow the path set by the Nasdaq-100 index. For instance, Michaël van de Poppe suggested that during a market rebound, the Nasdaq-100 recovers first, then $BTC follows the trend 1 to 3 weeks later.
If Bitcoin ever reclaimed its 2025 peak and soared 8% above it as the index did, the price would reach a high of around $136,700.
However, it remains to be seen if $BTC can replicate this momentum. For context, Bitcoin has actually recovered more than the Nasdaq-100 index since March 2026, but it remains more than 35% below its $ATH due to the steeper decline during the downturn.