en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Sherlock has provided a data-driven analysis of the frequently cited “sell in May” strategy for Bitcoin in the markets.
Sherlock’s findings revealed that the classical approach wasn’t as statistically sound as previously thought, while a more specific variation yielded remarkable results.
According to the analyst, the basic “sell in May” thesis doesn’t generate a meaningful signal for Bitcoin. Examining the period since 2018, May has closed lower in only 4 out of 8 years, weakening the generalizability of this strategy. This once again demonstrates that traditional financial patterns don’t always hold true in the Bitcoin market.
However, the alternative scenario highlighted by Sherlock offers a stronger correlation. Analysis from 2020 shows that if Bitcoin fails to surpass its April peak in the first five days of May, it experiences at least a 5% drop during the remainder of the month. In this scenario, the average retracement rate is calculated at 20.6%.
Looking back at past years, this pattern has produced remarkable results. Declines of 10% in 2020, 47.7% in 2021, 26.9% in 2022, 12.5% in 2023, and 5.9% in 2024 were recorded. However, in 2025, Bitcoin broke this pattern by surpassing its April peak on May 1st and rising by 16.9% to reach $111,980 by May 22nd.
The critical level for 2026 is $79,485. According to Sherlock, if Bitcoin fails to surpass this level again within the first five days of May, there is a risk of triggering a sharp downward movement in the markets.
*This is not investment advice.