Czech central bank research finds 1 percent BTC improves returns

Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank, has called for central banks to reconsider their reserve asset strategies, suggesting that Bitcoin could be included as an official option. He made these remarks during a presentation at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, signaling a potential shift in approach for the top regulator of Czech monetary policy and financial stability.

Examining Bitcoin’s place in reserve portfolios

Michl highlighted that the Czech central bank manages reserves worth around $180 billion, equivalent to 44% of the nation’s GDP. He emphasized the need for diversification beyond traditional assets like bonds and gold. Recent internal research by the bank explored how including Bitcoin in its reserves might affect long-term returns.

According to the study, allocating just 1% of reserves to Bitcoin would raise expected returns without creating a significant increase in overall portfolio risk. This benefit stems mainly from Bitcoin’s low correlation with other reserve assets. Previous research comparing the performance of gold and Bitcoin in currency reserves also suggested that Bitcoin could deliver strong returns with lower capital requirements. However, the report cautioned that all findings were based on historical data and do not guarantee future outcomes.

“A 1-point Bitcoin allocation was found to increase expected returns without meaningfully elevating overall portfolio risk. This result arises from Bitcoin’s low correlation with other reserve assets,” the research noted.

An alternative to the European Central Bank stance

Michl’s comments mark a clear departure from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s position. Lagarde has asserted that central banks should only hold safe, liquid, and sound assets—and has unequivocally rejected Bitcoin for official reserves. However, Michl’s presentation utilized real market data and provided a critical lens on the traditional reserve philosophy.

Financial analyst Štěpán Uherík recently observed that the debate now centers on whether central banks can entirely ignore Bitcoin in their portfolios. Uherík noted that ongoing trading activity and the lack of counterparty risk have put Bitcoin on the radar of central bankers. He also pointed out the existence of a thriving Bitcoin ecosystem within the Czech Republic.

Reserve strategy and cautious optimism

The Czech National Bank previously assessed Bitcoin within a separate test portfolio of blockchain-based assets but has not yet made it part of official reserves. Michl’s latest remarks confirm Bitcoin’s rising importance in both reserve theory and central bank discussions, though the bank still approaches any changes deliberately.

A recent report revealed the Czech National Bank is increasing its gold reserves, now at 67.2 tons, with a target of 100 tons. The bank clarified that this boost in gold holdings has not led to a dramatic shift in the risk–return profile of its portfolio.

Meanwhile, bank analysts continue to warn about Bitcoin’s volatile and unstable financial characteristics over time, emphasizing its inherent risks. Although Bitcoin is recognized as a “logical component” for main reserves, it has not yet been adopted as an active allocation. Nevertheless, Michl’s comprehensive presentation positions Bitcoin alongside conventional assets in portfolio debates, offering central banks a broader set of diversification options.