Bitcoin in a “Deep Contraction”: What’s Needed for a Rally to $81,200?

A recent report published by cryptocurrency analytics company CryptoQuant revealed that while institutional buying continues unabated, spot Bitcoin demand is still in a period of “deep contraction.”

According to company data, as of the end of March, the 30-day apparent demand growth was approximately -63,000 $BTC. This indicates that selling pressure in the market remains stronger than buying demand.

CryptoQuant noted that despite increasing institutional purchases, overall demand continues to contract, with individual investors and other market participants outpacing institutional buying. According to the report, this trend has been ongoing since November 2025, confirming that the market is still in a “distribution phase.”

On the other hand, it is noteworthy that whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 $BTC have also become net sellers. It is stated that the total assets of this investor group have decreased by approximately 188,000 $BTC in the last year, while the 365-day moving average continues its downward trend. Analysts noted that historically, prolonged periods of negative accumulation by whales have coincided with price weakness, and current data indicates that selling pressure continues to be a structural obstacle.

It was also noted that the Coinbase premium index, which measures investor demand based in the US, remained mostly in negative territory during the period when Bitcoin fell to the $65,000-$70,000 range. This indicates that US investors have not yet made a strong return to the market.

However, CryptoQuant notes that a recovery in Bitcoin price could be seen if macroeconomic conditions improve. Specifically, it states that if tensions between the US and Iran ease, Bitcoin has the potential to rise to the $71,500 to $81,200 range. The report highlights the $81,200 level as the “trader realized price,” which also acted as resistance during the bear market rally in January 2026.

*This is not investment advice.