44% of Bitcoin Investor Positions Are in the Red: How Will We Know When the Bear Market Is Over?

The rapid increase in the loss-making supply of Bitcoin ($BTC) is raising new concerns about market dynamics. According to recent data shared by the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, approximately 44% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in the loss zone.

Bitcoin is trading at around $66,450, down approximately 47% from its peak of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. This decline has resulted in investors facing a total of approximately $598.7 billion in unrealized losses. According to the data, approximately 8.8 million $BTC are in a loss position.

Glassnode assesses the current situation as similar to the market structure in the second quarter of 2022. According to the company, offsetting losses of this magnitude typically requires a transfer of assets from investors in losses to new buyers entering the market at lower price levels.

Long-term investors (those holding for more than 155 days) have seen their daily realized losses rise to $200 million. Glassnode interprets this as “confirmation of active stop-loss sales.” According to their analysis, a drop in this figure below $25 million per day would be considered a significant signal indicating that selling pressure has subsided, a historical indicator preceding the formation of bottoms.

On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the spot price of Bitcoin remains below $83,408, the average cost level for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors. This indicates that ETF investors are under increasing pressure. Indeed, in the week ending March 27, there was a net outflow of over $194 million from global Bitcoin investment products.

Weakness on the demand side also supports the market outlook. According to Capriole Investments data, the “apparent demand” indicator for Bitcoin is measured at -1,623 $BTC, revealing that sellers are dominant in the market. Similarly, CryptoQuant notes that the demand contraction that has been ongoing since November 2025 confirms that the market is still in a “distribution phase”.

*This is not investment advice.