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Bitcoin ($BTC) has fallen by approximately 50% since October. However, this decline remains more limited compared to other cycles.
At this point, Fidelity, one of the world’s largest asset management companies, analyzed that the declines in $BTC have been milder compared to past cycles.
According to Fidelity’s analysis, the decline in Bitcoin in the current cycle is milder compared to the past. And Bitcoin is entering a phase of maturity with a combination of decreasing price volatility and institutional fund inflows.
Zack Wainwright, a research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that $BTC has historically experienced sharp drops of 80% to 90% after its all-time highs in previous cycles.
In contrast, the decline in this cycle was limited to approximately 50%.
“Bitcoin has only fallen by about 50% in this market cycle. The current decline is significantly narrower compared to previous cycles where it fell by 80-90% from its peaks.”
At this point, Wainwright added that when Bitcoin’s price performance is viewed relative to the peaks of previous cycles, a “diminishing returns” pattern emerges between cycles.
“As cycles repeat, the phenomenon of diminishing returns emerges as volatility decreases in both upward and downward movements.”
While analyzing the changing cyclical structure of Fidelity, Joao Wedson, founder of the cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal, pointed out that based on historical patterns, the bottom occurs 912-922 days after the halving, predicting that the market bottom will likely occur in late September or early October.
*This is not investment advice.