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Bitcoin ($BTC) entered a bear market after hitting a new record high of over $126,000 in early October. The price has fallen by approximately 50% since October, and analysts still predict that the bottom has not yet been reached.
While September and October are currently being indicated as the bottom for Bitcoin, $BTC recorded its first monthly gain since September of last year in March, rising 2.2% after a long period. Bitcoin’s price is currently trading around $69,000, up 2.3% in the last 24 hours.
However, April, generally known as a bull month, started green for Bitcoin, so let’s look at the answers to the questions “Does Bitcoin like April? How has it performed in previous Aprils?”
How Did Bitcoin Perform in Previous April Months?
When we look at Bitcoin’s performance over the years and months, we notice that certain months see a concentration of declines, while other months see a concentration of increases.
Looking at Bitcoin’s monthly return data, we can generally see that January, March, August, September, and December are months of decline, while February, April, July, October, and November are months of increase.
At this point, when historical data is examined, Bitcoin closed April with a decline in only 5 of the last 13 years, while it closed April with an increase in the remaining 8 years.
According to the data, in April when $BTC closed in the red, the percentage decreases were 14.7%, 17.3%, 1.9%, 3.4%, and 1.6%, respectively.
While this historical data might suggest an upward trend in April, previous years’ predictions don’t guarantee a rise in upcoming Aprils. It’s crucial to remember that Bitcoin and the markets are influenced by numerous dynamics.
At this point, there is a cautious view in the market about whether the trend will reverse in light of the declines experienced since October. Furthermore, the ongoing war between the US and Iran, which has lasted for weeks, is increasing uncertainty and inflation risk. This is delaying any Fed interest rate cuts and negatively impacting risky assets like Bitcoin.
What Do Analysts Expect?
Crypto analyst Rachel Lucas said, “For Bitcoin to regain investor confidence, it needs to remain stable in the $70,000 to $72,000 range.”
Crypto analytics company Matrixport is taking a cautious approach. The firm predicts that $BTC may face short-term selling pressure in April due to geopolitical and inflation risks.
Matrixport noted that while April has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, this pattern has become unstable recently.
Analysts noted that the current monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $BTC is at 47%, indicating a neutral position and suggesting moderate conditions for upward momentum.
However, analysts noted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation concerns continue to weigh on risk appetite.
Matrixport analysts concluded that Bitcoin may face short-term selling pressure in early April. At this point, the firm added that a wait-and-see strategy might be sensible until a clearer market direction emerges.
*This is not investment advice.