Bitcoin Report from Japanese Research Company: “Big Whales Are Selling, Institutions Are Buying” – What Does It Mean?

XWIN Research Japan, a Japan-based research firm, pointed to a notable supply structure in the Bitcoin ($BTC) market, indicating a clear divergence between large investors and institutional buyers.

According to the company, while the Bitcoin price appears stuck around the $70,000 level, a weak market structure is evident on the surface. In particular, the Exchange Whale Ratio metric, prominent in on-chain data, reveals increased activity by large investors in exchanges and strengthening short-term selling pressure. This aligns with a picture where the market is struggling to produce an upward breakout.

However, more in-depth analyses indicate a significant shift in market dynamics. It is reported that approximately 62,000 $BTC were purchased by publicly traded companies in the first quarter of 2026, with these purchases largely corroborated by official financial statements and regulatory filings. In particular, MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation of Bitcoin through capital increases and debt financing is creating a sustained source of demand in the market.

The report notes that these institutional actors, unlike traditional long-term investors, actively utilize capital markets. It adds that these purchases, made through debt and equity issuance, create a demand flow independent of price movements, absorbing supply even in weak market conditions.

On the other hand, a mixed picture prevails in spot Bitcoin ETFs. While inflows are seen in the products of some large companies like BlackRock, the ongoing outflows from Grayscale are said to indicate a rotation among funds rather than new money entering the market. Therefore, it is stated that total ETF assets will be flat or slightly declining in the first quarter of 2026.

When all this data is considered together, it appears that the Bitcoin market has become fragmented. Large investors are driving short-term volatility with sales, while institutional companies are steadily accumulating in the background. ETF investors are not showing a clear direction, while individual investors are generally on the selling side.

XWIN Research Japan argues that Bitcoin is not simply in a “weak” market, but rather undergoing a transitional period where who controls the supply is changing.

*This is not investment advice.