crypto-economy.com
TL;DR
- Bitwise analysts say Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market.
- The firm estimates that this market is currently worth nearly $38 trillion, largely dominated by gold.
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If it expands toward $121 trillion over the next decade, Bitcoin would only need to secure around a 17% share to justify a seven-figure valuation.
Bitcoin’s long-term valuation is once again a topic of discussion as investors search for assets that protect purchasing power. According to asset manager Bitwise, Bitcoin’s limited supply and decentralized structure position it as a credible store-of-value asset in a market historically led by gold.
Despite trading roughly 40% below its previous all-time high, Bitcoin continues to attract institutional attention. Bitwise analysts say the long-term price outlook depends on adoption as a store of value, rather than short-term market volatility.
Bitcoin Store Of Value Thesis Gains Momentum
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlines a valuation framework based on the size of the global store-of-value market. The method begins by estimating the total value of assets used mainly to preserve wealth. Gold currently represents about $36 trillion, while Bitcoin accounts for roughly $1.4 trillion.
Under this model, Bitcoin controls slightly less than 4% of the market, leaving substantial room for expansion if investors increasingly treat it as a digital alternative to gold.
A central element in the thesis is Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins. Because supply cannot expand to meet demand, price movements can accelerate when new capital enters the market.
Recent developments also support this view. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States in 2024 opened the door for pension funds, wealth managers, and institutional investors that previously faced operational or regulatory limitations.
Expanding Store Of Value Market Supports Long Term Outlook
Hougan’s analysis also assumes that the store-of-value market itself will grow significantly in the coming years. Rising sovereign debt levels, inflation concerns, and currency debasement fears have already pushed investors toward scarce assets over the past two decades.
Bitwise estimates that the global store-of-value market could approach $121 trillion within about ten years. If that happens, Bitcoin would not need to dominate the sector to justify a $1 million price.
Instead, capturing around 17% of the total market could be sufficient. While this would represent a major shift in global asset allocation, Bitwise argues that improving infrastructure, stronger custody services, and clearer regulations are making institutional participation easier.