finbold.com
Bitcoin ($BTC) price could be entering its most frustrating phase of the 2026 bear market as its supply in loss hits 45% on Wednesday, March 11.
The midterm bearish outlook for Bitcoin has been exaggerated by its rising supply in losses, which has historically triggered further selloff. Currently, the supply of $BTC in losses hovered between 40% and 45%, but CryptoQuant’s data shows a historic bottom formed after this supply surged above 50%.
Bitcoin suffers rising selling pressure
The midterm bullish outlook for $BTC has continued to look bleak as long-term investors realize losses, as revealed by data from CryptoQuant. Notably, Bitcoin’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which shows coins sent on-chain are sold in profit or loss, dropped below 1.
Historically, if the $BTC’s long-term holder SOPR dropped below 1, the cohorts’ conviction dropped and catalyzed bearish sentiment in the subsequent months.
Moreover, the flagship coin has suffered weak demand from investors after a failed positive demand in February, according to data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform.
Midterm $BTC price prediction
Bitcoin price has signaled midterm bearish sentiment after it was rejected again above $70,790 on Tuesday to trade at about $69,613 at press time.
From a technical analysis standpoint, $BTC price could be very close to its near market bottom after getting trapped in a falling trend in the past few months, according to trading expert 0xChiefy on X.
As such, this crypto trader believes that the $BTC price will likely drop to $45,000 before rebounding towards its all-time high. The midterm bearish outlook for $BTC price will, however, be invalidated if the flagship coin rebounds above $100,000.