en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Crypto analyst PlanC shared a noteworthy assessment arguing that Bitcoin’s “fair value” calculations have long been modeled incorrectly. According to the analyst, the true statistical fair value that should be calculated for Bitcoin today is approximately $101,000.
PlanC, in a statement made on the social media platform X, claimed that many analysts are using incorrect methods to calculate Bitcoin’s fair value. According to the analyst, methods commonly used in the market, such as OLS regression (mean regression) or linear quantile regression, do not accurately reflect Bitcoin’s true value. PlanC stated that calculations using these methods show Bitcoin’s fair value to be approximately $118,000 – $130,000, arguing that this is a statistically flawed approach.
According to PlanC, there is a significant “decay” effect at the median (50th quantile) level in the Bitcoin price model. Therefore, calculations using a time-varying decay function yield more realistic results. According to the analyst’s model, using different decay functions such as logarithmic, hyperbolic, or log-normal, Bitcoin’s fair current value is calculated to be approximately in the $100,000–$101,000 range.
The analyst also noted that there was no decay effect at the 1st quantile level in the model. Therefore, PlanC stated that decay models yielded the same results as linear quantile regression in sub-quantile calculations, but argued that this was not the case at the median level.
According to PlanC’s assessment, Bitcoin’s statistically calculated true fair value is around $101,000, while models showing higher values are largely based on incorrect assumptions.
*This is not investment advice.