thecryptobasic.com
Bitcoin may be entering a critical phase after its recent rally, with several analysts warning of a potential sharp correction.
Technical signals and historical market patterns suggest the cryptocurrency could move toward a new accumulation zone if selling pressure increases in the near term.
Key Points
- Bitcoin recently surged from roughly $63,000 to $74,050, raising concerns of a potential short-term bull trap.
- Analyst Chiefy predicts Bitcoin could drop to $45,000 within 10 days if bearish momentum intensifies.
- Historical market cycles suggest Bitcoin may decline further, potentially approaching $40,000, according to Ali Martinez.
- A death cross has appeared on Bitcoin’s three-day chart, signaling potential continuation of a macro downtrend.
- Key support levels are $60,000 (near-term) and $50,000 (potential bottom), while resistance sits at $80,000 for bullish recovery.
Analysts Warn of Possible “Bull Trap”
One analyst urging caution is Chiefy, who believes the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price may have misled many traders. In a chart analysis shared on X, Chiefy highlighted Bitcoin’s rapid climb from roughly $63,000 to $74,050.
According to him, the move could represent a classic bull trap, where a short-lived rally draws buyers before the market reverses.
If this scenario unfolds, the analyst expects prices to decline quickly. He suggests Bitcoin could drop toward $45,000 within the next 10 days if bearish momentum intensifies.
Historical Cycle Patterns Suggest Deeper Decline
While Chiefy focuses on short-term price action, other analysts are examining longer-term market cycles.
For instance, Ali Martinez argues Bitcoin’s current behavior resembles patterns observed during previous downturns. He noted that the asset appears to be following its well-known four-year market cycle, with price action now mirroring developments seen in 2022.
If the pattern continues along a similar trajectory, Martinez suggests Bitcoin could decline further and potentially approach the $40,000 level.
Déjà vu…!? pic.twitter.com/OQQYVZuDrw
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 5, 2026
Death Cross Adds to Bearish Signals
Martinez also highlighted a technical signal that recently appeared on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. The chart has formed a death cross, a pattern closely monitored by long-term market participants.
This signal occurs when the 50-period simple moving average drops below the 200-period moving average. According to Martinez, the relationship between these two indicators is particularly important when assessing the market trend.
Because of this, he considers the three-day timeframe a key tool for understanding Bitcoin’s macro direction.
Previous Cycles Show Similar Downturns
To support his analysis, Martinez compared the current market structure with earlier Bitcoin cycles.
During the 2013–2014 market cycle, Bitcoin had already declined 72% before a death cross appeared in December 2014. Following that signal, the price dropped another 52%.
A comparable pattern developed after the 2017 bull market. By the time the death cross formed, Bitcoin was already 67% below its peak. The market later dropped by roughly another 50%.
The 2021 cycle followed a similar trajectory. Bitcoin had fallen 58% from its high when the death cross appeared in May 2022. Prices subsequently declined by another 46%.
Given these historical precedents, Martinez believes the market could now be entering the final phase of the current cycle’s decline. Based on this view, he expects Bitcoin might eventually form a long-term bottom around October 2026.
Key Price Levels to Watch
While some analysts focus on macro trends, others are tracking key price levels that may influence Bitcoin’s next move.
Crypto commentator Crypto Rover identified several zones traders should monitor closely. According to Rover, Bitcoin could find its first major support near $60,000 if prices begin to fall.
Should the selling pressure intensify, he believes the market may move closer to $50,000, where a potential bottom could develop.
On the upside, a sustained recovery would likely require Bitcoin to break above $80,000. A move past that level could restore bullish momentum and reopen the path toward the $100,000 psychological milestone.
Current Market Position
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $67,521. Although this reflects some recovery from recent lows, the asset remains significantly below its previous peak.
In fact, Bitcoin is still 46.4% below its all-time high of $126,080, recorded on October 6, 2025.