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Bitcoin’s ($BTC) present market cycle is presenting signals of an intermediate stage. Particularly, the NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite presently sits at 0.33, whereas historical cycle bottoms have occurred near -0.5. As per the data from Axel Adler Jr., this highlights that the Bitcoin market is currently far from reaching complete capitulation. This condition is often linked with the conclusion of bearish phases.
Bitcoin is in the intermediate phase of the current cycle. The NUPL–MVRV Harmonic Composite is 0.33, while past cyclical bottoms began near -0.5.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) March 7, 2026
The chart also shows an upward shift of cycle lows, suggesting capitulation extremes are becoming less severe. Even so, the indicator… pic.twitter.com/RscG8DPQ3v
Bitcoin Stands Far From Market Bottom as NUPL-MVRV Metrics Highlight
In line with the market statistics, Bitcoin’s present market cycle displays signs of the middle phase because NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite accounts for 0.33. This level is considered to be notably far from a market bottom, which normally forms around -0.5. Additionally, the data also reveals that, over time, a surge has taken place in cycle lows. Due to this, the severe capitulation events are turning less extreme.
Specifically, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) are the indicators mostly utilized to evaluate investor sentiment. Previously, when the composite index reached the -0.5 mark, $BTC approached cyclical bottoms, presenting noteworthy buying opportunities. Nonetheless, the present 0.33 spot highlights a considerable distance from that territory. As a result of this, while $BTC is not completely overheated, it has not undergone the extreme capitulation that normally comes before major rallies.
Growing Institutional Adoption Minimizes Risks for Capitulation
According to Axel Adler Jr., capitulation peaks, once acting as the indicator of wider crypto downturns, seem to be relatively moderating. Based on this, wide market maturity and institutional adoption are cushioning Bitcoin when it comes to combating the sheer dips witnessed in former cycles. Overall, while cycle lows are moving upward, $BTC investors may feel comfortable in decreased downside risk, while patience is still essential amid the waiting for wider confirmation of upcoming major move.