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Bitcoin is poised to end February with another decline, marking its fifth consecutive month in the red.
According to market data, the leading cryptocurrency lost approximately 16.3% of its value in February, marking its worst February performance since 2020. Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average increase of 11% in February, but this year the trend has reversed.
As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $65,800, and overall market sentiment remains cautious as we enter March. While March historically stands out with an average increase of 12.2%, experts believe that this time macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical risks may be the determining factors.
Deribit Commercial Director Jean-David Péquignot stated that the options market remains unconvinced of the bullish sentiment. He noted that today’s monthly expiry represents approximately 24% of the total $BTC options open positions on the platform (116,000 out of 489,000 contracts), highlighting the significant demand for downward hedging.
30-day put options trade with a volatility premium of approximately 7% compared to call options. This suggests that “smart money” continues to hedge against declines rather than chasing rallies.
The largest concentration of open positions on the options market is in put contracts with a strike price of $60,000. There is also significant demand for hedging in the $50,000–$60,000 range. According to Péquignot, if the price falls below $63,000 and approaches $61,000, the negative gamma effect could accelerate the decline and lead to a liquidity sweep.
It is also noted that ETF investors and institutional treasuries are purchasing put options with 6-month and 1-year maturities for levels of $60,000 and below. This level is said to be the “maximum pain threshold” for many institutional investors. If $60,000 is lost, the $55,000-$50,000 range may come into play.
On the other hand, it is stated that if the daily close is above $68,000, the downward trend may weaken and the $70,000-$71,000 resistance zone may become the target again.
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin said that in the short term, the direction depends on macroeconomic developments and news flow. Developments regarding the CLARITY Act on March 1st are seen as a potential catalyst, while rising geopolitical tensions remain a risk factor.
According to Puckrin, Bitcoin may trade sideways in the $60,000-$71,000 range for a while. Even if a potential relief rally occurs, it may not be sustainable.
However, the picture isn’t entirely bleak. According to Mike Marshall, Head of Research at Amberdata, despite the weakness on the surface, a remarkable accumulation process is taking place beneath the surface.
Marshall noted that leveraged positions have been largely cleaned up, stablecoin supply has increased by $4.3 billion monthly, and whales have quietly accumulated over 230,000 $BTC.
Marshall, stating that “the correction has done its job, it has cleared the excess from the market,” argued that a new catalyst is needed. The Clarity Act process, developments regarding the Fed chairmanship, and tariff decisions are cited as potential triggers. However, it is stated that the timing of these developments is unpredictable.
*This is not investment advice.