cryptopolitan.com
$BTC volatility returned to levels not seen since March 2025, as the leading coin is quick to react to any signs of panic. $BTC is deleveraged and shows signs of choppy sideways trading.
$BTC has returned to higher volatility in February. The monthly metric rose to the highest level since March 2025.
$BTC is now moving sideways, but remains choppy, with rapid daily shifts. In the past week, $BTC recovered close to $70,000 on rumors Jane Street had stopped its daily selling. Later, the coin dipped to $65,000 in another downturn.
$BTC volatility remains elevated
The volatility index rose to 2.63% for the latest 30-day estimate, growing from January’s lows of under 1%. On a longer time frame, $BTC volatility has been within a bound range for the past three years, signaling a generally mature market.
The $BTC futures market remains deleveraged, with open interest down to a one-year low of $19.74B. However, this does not prevent short-term rallies and liquidations of long positions. The overall effect is increased volatility and choppy prices, instead of long-term stagnation.
The current trading indicators point to the formation of a market bottom, following a sharp capitulation event, and even question the utility of $BTC as a whole.
Will $BTC end February with a loss?
$BTC traded at $65,987.77 as of February 27, logging over 16% in losses for the month to date. For the first quarter of 2026, $BTC is down by over 24% for the first quarter to date.
The current monthly loss will be unique in $BTC’s history, as the coin has never experienced losses in January and February in a row.
Usually, one of the months sees a relief rally, but in 2026, sentiment was low enough to extend losses for two months in a row. For the entire February, the crypto fear and greed index has been in the ‘extreme fear’ range, with no signs of confident buying and diminishing long positions.
$BTC is also the only major asset lagging in 2026. Gold is up by over 81%, while silver retained 190% in gains even after its correction. NASDAQ added 21% despite the recent crash in software stocks over the threat of AI disruption.
In the short term, $BTC has shown it can quickly switch to a more bullish sentiment. The coin is showing signs of a market bottom and may spend some time in accumulation. For now, there are no signs of rebuilding leverage, which is the main driver of directional price moves.
In the past, $BTC has rebuilt leverage in 3-6 months, but this time, the October 11 liquidation events caused a deep distrust of trading futures. $BTC traders and analysts still have not reached a consensus on whether $BTC would have a mini bear market or, once again, spend years in sideways trading.