en.bitcoinsistemi.com
In its latest assessment, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin is stuck below the $70,000 level and that structural transformations in the global economy are becoming a decisive factor for the cryptocurrency market.
According to the company, increasing protectionist tendencies and AI-driven industry transformation signal a shift to a new macroeconomic regime in the markets.
Wintermute’s analysis stated that Bitcoin has been moving sideways in the $64,000–$67,000 range following the liquidation wave of the past two weeks, and is trading like a high-beta asset. It noted that price movements are increasingly similar to some major alternative cryptocurrencies, and that pressure persists in the short term.
According to the company, micro-level factors (tariffs, central bank statements, and corporate balance sheets) have long been driving market pricing. However, this framework is now weakening, and investors are shifting towards a deeper perception of “regime change.” Specifically, it notes that the Fed’s decisive role in the markets is diminishing, tariffs are becoming permanent, artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming sectors, and while growth is slowing, inflation remains resilient.
Wintermute noted that Bitcoin has failed to break above the $70,000 level multiple times since the liquidation process. According to the company, what’s particularly noteworthy is not the price moving within a narrow range, but rather the lack of strong demand for a recovery. Liquidity is weak, price movements are volatile and directionless, while Ethereum has fallen below $1,900 this week, with the psychologically significant level being around $1,600.
It was noted that institutional demand has not returned despite price stability. While strong institutional inflows seen in the previous $85,000–$95,000 range were absent, it was also stated that there is no clear directional expectation in the derivatives markets. It was reported that premium rates in futures contracts have fallen to their lowest levels in months, demand for short positions has increased, and the amount of open positions has decreased since October.
The company noted that some high-net-worth investors showed limited interest in select alternative cryptocurrencies in the middle of the week, but this appetite quickly faded. In the second half of the week, the market returned to a volatile state, with investors opting for hedging rather than risk-taking.
Wintermute’s assessment stated that crypto assets are currently being sold in the high-growth, high-risk asset category, experiencing a decline in value, particularly alongside technology stocks. It also noted that the outflows from exchange-traded crypto funds confirm this trend.
However, the company stated that, from a broader perspective, the real question is how lasting this macroeconomic narrative will be. Scenarios where recession and inflation occur together, along with themes such as fragmentation in global trade and limited room for maneuver for central banks, could point to a more permanent price shift rather than a short-term fluctuation. This environment, it was noted, supports commodities and value-based assets while disadvantaging growth-oriented assets (including cryptocurrencies).
However, Wintermute noted that similar growth fears in the past have been followed by a return of risk appetite and a renewed market momentum. This time, however, the AI transformation and global economic fragmentation are seen as having a more structural character. The company stated that the most critical question for the crypto market in 2026 is how permanent this new macro narrative will be, adding that the answer to this question is not yet clear.
*This is not investment advice.