Accordingly, if the US Supreme Court rules that the Trump administration loses the case, the financial consequences are expected to be significant.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), affiliated with the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, estimates that if the court invalidates the tariffs, $175 billion in tariffs collected since the beginning of 2025 would have to be refunded.
If the tariffs are canceled, importers could claim refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection for taxes they have paid since the beginning of 2025.
While tariffs are projected to generate approximately $300 billion in annual revenue over the next decade, an unfavorable decision could deprive the U.S. of a significant portion of this income. The U.S. Treasury Department states that it can cover the repayments and will take alternative tariff measures if necessary.
In this regard, Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), previously stated that Trump is prepared for every decision, adding that if the Supreme Court’s tariff decision is unfavorable, Trump has other options.
According to experts, a ruling that customs tariffs are unconstitutional could ease companies’ cost burdens and potentially boost risk appetite. This would be good news for Bitcoin, while conversely, an unexpected outcome could trigger a sharp correction for $BTC.
*This is not investment advice.