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The recent drop in Bitcoin (BTC) price has led to a significant increase in losses. However, on-chain data still suggests the market hasn’t reached its true bottom.
At this point, the analytics company CryptoQuant stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin is continuing its downtrend and has not yet fully reached its bottom.
The report stated that Bitcoin investors experienced daily losses of approximately $5.4 billion over the past five days. This is the largest loss since March 2023 and surpasses the losses experienced during the FTX crisis.
However, CryptoQuant analysts believe it is too early to interpret this as a bottoming-out signal.
Besides this, other data also suggest that it’s too early for a bottom. At this point, key indicators like MVRV and NUPL have not fallen to the extremely low valuation levels typically observed at bottoms.
“Currently, approximately 55% of the total Bitcoin supply is still in the profit zone. In past cycles, this rate dropped to around 45-50% at low points.”
Finally, the “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator,” which identifies market cycles, continues to remain in a downtrend. However, it has not yet entered the extreme downtrend phase where it formed a bottom in the past.
Bitcoin Should Reach These Levels!
In conclusion, CryptoQuant analysts stated that key on-chain indicators have not yet reached the extreme undervaluation phase that defined past lows.
At this point, he noted that Bitcoin’s current realized price of approximately $55,000 has not yet been tested, and as in past cycles, a larger drop and a longer-term correction compared to the realized price may be necessary for the bottom.
“Based on on-chain data, a key support level, which is the actual price (approximately $55,000), has not yet been tested.”
The current Bitcoin price is approximately 18% higher than the actual price.
Looking at past cycles, prices have fallen 24-30% below the actual price, followed by a bottoming out period lasting 4-6 months.
*This is not investment advice.