Bitcoin Down 40% From Peak: PlanB Details Four Possible Bear Market Floors

Crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB, has discussed four possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s current bear market. The analysis follows a sharp drawdown of over 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of above $126,000.

Scenario One: 80% Correction From the Peak

The first scenario assumes Bitcoin repeats its deepest historical declines. An 80% drop from the $126,000 high would push the price toward $25,000.

PlanB said this outcome has occurred in past cycles, but noted it would place Bitcoin between major long-term support bands in a zone where price has rarely stayed for long.

The analyst had also rolled out a poll, and roughly 14.8% of participants in PlanB’s poll selected the $25,000 level.

Scenario Two: Return to Long-Term Averages

The second scenario targets a move down to the 200-week moving average and realized price. These levels currently sit between $50,000 and $60,000.

In January, the 200-week moving average closed near $58,000, while the realized price stood around $55,000. Previous bear markets have consistently bottomed near these levels.

This scenario is the market favorite. About 47.1% of respondents voted for a pullback into the $50,000-$60,000 range.

Scenario Three: Support Above the Prior Cycle High

The third path assumes a shallow bear market. Under this view, Bitcoin holds just above the previous cycle’s all-time high near $69,000, placing a potential floor around $70,000.

PlanB linked this scenario to weak bull market momentum. RSI failed to reach extreme highs during the rally, reducing the amount of excess to unwind.

Approximately 28.7% of poll participants selected this outcome.

Scenario Four: Local Bottom Already Formed

The fourth scenario suggests Bitcoin may have already bottomed. Price briefly touched $72,900 earlier this week, which PlanB said could mark a local low if the bear market remains shallow.

This outcome received the least support in the poll, with about 9.4% of voters selecting it.

Long-Term Models

PlanB stated that his stock-to-flow model remains unchanged and still implies a long-term valuation near $500,000. He added that the model reflects scarcity value and does not predict short-term tops or bottoms.

The analyst also noted that the usual four-year cycle timing has changed. Bitcoin did not peak in the first two years after the 2024 halving, leaving the possibility that the cycle’s strongest phase could still lie ahead.

Related: Here’s the BTC Price for 2026, According to ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, and Grok