en.bitcoinsistemi.com
In an analysis published following the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin ($BTC), cryptocurrency analytics company QCP Capital stated that the market is in a fragile balance in terms of both macroeconomic and derivative indicators.
According to the company’s assessment, Bitcoin fell to approximately $72,900, reaching its lowest level since the post-US election rally. However, the US House of Representatives narrowly passing a $1.2 trillion budget package, ending the partial government shutdown, reduced short-term uncertainty and led to a price recovery. The $BTC price is now trying to hold above the $75,000 level again.
QCP Capital noted that open positions in futures contracts narrowed during the decline, and funding rates turned negative. This indicates a short-term panic in the market as selling pressure accelerated. According to the analysis, the $75,000 level is currently a critical threshold.
On the macro front, while the risk of a government shutdown has subsided for now, the extension of the Department of Homeland Security’s budget only until February 13th creates a new “deadline risk.” Furthermore, the downing of an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Gulf of Oman has led to a renewed geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. However, diplomatic developments are limiting the overall rise.
In US domestic politics, the debate surrounding the Fed chairmanship is back on the agenda. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chairman has reshaped expectations regarding monetary policy. According to the analysis firm, investors pricing in more aggressive interest rate cuts later in the year could support risky assets and weaken the dollar. However, Warsh’s tendency to accelerate the balance sheet reduction process could create new stress points for the repo market and liquidity balances.
Options market data also confirms the cautious outlook. While short-term implied volatility remains high, a slight backward pricing trend is observed in the maturity structure. It is noted that demand for downside risks has increased, and hedging transactions for sharp decline scenarios, known as “crash convexity” (option structures that provide increased sensitivity to sharp declines), have intensified.
According to QCP Capital, the $75,000 level is a technical “turning point”. If this level is sustained and funding rates stabilize, risk appetite could increase. However, a downward break could quickly shift the market outlook to a defensive stance.
*This is not investment advice.