en.bitcoinsistemi.com
The sharp pullback in Bitcoin’s price signals a new crisis of confidence in the market. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $76,000 in weekend trading amid low liquidity, registering a drop of approximately 40% from its 2025 peak.
Thus, the price has returned to the levels seen after the tariff upheavals known as “Freedom Day.”
The process that began after the sudden crash in October has now evolved into a different dimension. The latest sell-off is driven less by panic-induced chain liquidations or a systemic shock, and more by a lack of buyers, weakening momentum, and diminishing confidence. It’s noteworthy that Bitcoin hasn’t been able to react to geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, or recoveries in risk appetite. Despite the sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices in recent weeks, there has been no significant capital rotation in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin lost approximately 11% in January, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline. This is the longest losing streak since the 2018 crash that followed the 2017 ICO boom. Paul Howard, a director at market maker Wincent, commented, “I don’t think we’ll see a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026.”
Another noteworthy element, besides the decline itself, is the significant weakening of optimism on social media. The aggressive “buying the dip” rhetoric and bullish expectations seen in past cycles have been quite limited this time. Yet this is happening despite positive developments such as the Trump administration’s pro-crypto regulatory measures and increased institutional investment. Many investors believe this optimism has already been priced in and that momentum has been exhausted after the early rally.
As outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, a significant portion of mainstream investors are at a loss due to high-priced purchases. Large institutional players, such as those in digital asset treasuries, have also slowed their purchases following the bursting of their own stock price bubbles last year. This is weakening demand from the upper segment of the market.
Market depth is also alarming. According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin’s market depth, which can absorb large transactions, has fallen by more than 30% compared to its October peak. The last time liquidity was this low was after the FTX crash in 2022.
Historical data also doesn’t present an optimistic picture. After its 2021 peak, Bitcoin’s recovery took 28 months. Following the 2017 ICO boom, recovery took almost three years. In light of these comparisons, it’s assessed that the current decline may still be in its early stages.
Kaiko analyst Laurens Fraussen recalled that from the 2017 peak to the 2018–2019 crypto winter, trading volumes on spot exchanges contracted by 60% to 70%. During the 2021–2023 downturn, this contraction remained in the 30%–40% range. Fraussen stated that we may be in approximately the 25% portion of the current cycle, and historically, the sharpest pullbacks have usually occurred in the 50% portion of the cycle. According to the analyst, volumes are likely to remain weak over the next six to nine months before a meaningful recovery occurs.
Some market participants, however, believe the problem is more fundamental: competition for capital. Richard Hodges, founder of the Ferro BTC Volatility Fund, told large Bitcoin investors they need to be patient. Hodges stated, “I talk to a lot of Bitcoin whales and I tell them clearly: they won’t see a new all-time high for 1,000 days.”
According to Hodges, the rise in AI-related stocks and precious metals has attracted the attention of macro investors and momentum-focused traders. “Bitcoin was a story from three years ago. It’s not a story today. AI stocks are soaring. First gold rose, then silver exploded,” he stated.
*This is not investment advice.