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Following yesterday’s sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency markets, expectations in the forecasting markets have also rapidly reshaped.
Following the sharp declines in Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices, investors’ expectations for 2026 are reflected in the data from the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket.
Following the pullback in Bitcoin’s price, here are the probabilities given on Polymarket for the question “What price will Bitcoin see in 2026?”:
- $250,000: 5%
- $200,000: 9%
- $190,000: 9%
- $180,000: 10%
- $170,000: 11%
- $160,000: 16%
- $150,000: 18%
- $140,000: 22%
- $130,000: 27%
- $120,000: 37%
- $110,000: 50%
The $110,000 level stands out as the threshold where investors are divided.
In less severe scenarios, the situation is as follows:
- $100,000: 69%
- $75,000: 77%
- $65,000: 60%
- $55,000: 41%
- $45,000: 27%
- $35,000: 17%
- $25,000: 11%
- $15,000: 5%
Ethereum’s 2026 predictions have similarly been repriced:
- $10,000: 6%
- $8,000: 8%
- $7,500: 9%
- $7,000: 11%
- $6,500: 13%
- $6,000: 16%
- $5,500: 19%
- $5,000: 23%
- $4,500: 32%
- $4,000: 49%
- $3,500: 67%
- $2,500: 88%
- $2,000: 65%
- $1,500: 41%
- $1,000: 18%
- $800: 11%
Following Bitcoin’s drop to $82,516 and the sharp decline in precious metals, it appears that overly bullish scenarios in the forecasting markets have given way to more cautious and balanced expectations.
*This is not investment advice.