cryptopolitan.com
$BTC options on Deribit went through their first monthly expiry in 2026, serving as an indicator of market sentiment. Positions point to bearish hedging as $BTC unraveled to the $82,000 range.
On Friday, 91,000 $BTC options contracts expired with a put-call ratio of 0.48 and maximum pain at $90,000. The contracts had a notional value of $7.6B. Another $1.19B in $ETH contracts expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.68.
The January expiry is the first big event following the rollover from 2025. The notional options expiring today accounted for 25% of open interest, for a total of $9B. Call options dominated, signaling a bearish ratio with protections from a further downside for $BTC and $ETH.
As $BTC faces uncertain demand and range-bound trading, the options event further sent out a sentiment indicator of bearish expectations.
Options bring downside protection to $75,000 per $BTC
As $BTC and $ETH entered another downtrend in the past week, signs of fear once again spread on the crypto market. The early 2026 trading followed the unraveling in Q4 2025. For now, $BTC finds support at the $80,000 level, while $ETH holds above $2,500.
In the past month, downside protection positions shifted from $85,000 to $80,000. Contracts for the months ahead point to a higher probability for a shift to $80,000, rather than a run to $120,000.
The most numerous contracts are now at the $80,000 psychological level, and another accumulation of put contracts at $75,000 per $BTC. The latest market cycle showed elevated options trading activity, as positions aimed for better protection from a bear market.
The latest options expiry event saw a higher trading volume, mostly due to the new year rollover. Based on Deribit data, market makers and active traders have significant cash reserves and are ready to use options as a form of bearish hedging.
Will $BTC recover after the options expiry?
Historically, $BTC trading often shifted directions following significant options expiry events. Options expiry is often seen as a source of price pressure ahead of the event, as traders try to push the price to a profitable options position.
Following this week’s expiry, $BTC traded at $82,252.43, while $ETH sank to $2,717.77. $BTC is trading with a sentiment of extreme fear, expecting even lower drawdowns.
To date in January, $BTC is down by 3.35%, in a traditionally slow month during multiple cycles. The asset is now nearly 120 days from its all-time peak, with a 30% drawdown, setting bearish expectations of corrections as low as $40,000.
$BTC traders are also noticing $BTC is rejecting any attempt to move above $90,000, potentially pointing to deliberate selling. The coin increased its volatility in January, shifting to lower ranges after several liquidation events.