u.today
Despite the relatively calm weekend, most digital assets do not have enough fuel in their tanks for a proper recovery. Unfortunately, it is not clear where smaller assets like Shiba Inu will find the fuel. But the same goes for "grands" like XRP and Bitcoin, which have the same struggle.
XRP running on empty
Right now, XRP is exhibiting one of the most concerning combinations a market can produce: declining volume combined with stagnant price action. Technically, the price is still above recent local lows, but participation has virtually disappeared. The volume during significant trading sessions is almost at zero, which is far more significant than the majority of short-term price swings.
XRP is still stuck below all of the key moving averages that define trends on the chart. While the price is grinding sideways close to short-term support around the 20-26 EMA cluster, the 100 EMA and 200 EMA continue to serve as strong resistance. Strength is not this. This is pressure-induced indecision.
At first, the recent recovery from the declining channel low appeared promising, but it soon encountered resistance and lost steam. That bounce has no meaning if there is no volume. Volume is what keeps things going. It typically indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are willing to commit when it dries up this severely. For XRP, that poses a particular risk.
In the past, XRP has been able to overcome resistance levels through powerful liquidity waves. XRP typically drifts, bleeds slowly or fakes tiny breakouts that fail almost instantly when volume collapses. The environment of almost zero volume indicates that the market is not coiling but rather exhausted. Aggressive accumulation is not evident. Additionally, there is no panic selling.
Although it may sound neutral, markets do not rally from neutrality. They are motivated by imbalance, and there isn't any at the moment. Because of this, any bullish story is at best premature and at worst deceptive. In terms of structure, XRP remains in a more general bearish phase.
There are no higher highs, the momentum indicators are still flat, and the descending channel has not been invalidated. Low volume attests to the recent actions' corrective rather than impulsive nature. Any upward attempt is statistically likely to fail in the absence of a discernible increase in traded volume.
Shiba Inu has potential
Right now, Shiba Inu is in a position where the market appears to be calm but circumstances are developing that could lead to a significant move. Following a protracted decline, the price has stabilized and is currently compressing close to short-term moving averages, with the 20-26 EMA cluster serving as immediate support.
When liquidity is low heading into the weekend, this type of structure frequently precedes an increase in volatility. The absence of significant resistance above current levels is the most noteworthy aspect at the moment. The next significant resistance is located much higher nearer the 100 EMA, but SHIB has already overcome local lows and reclaimed short-term support.
Since there hasn't been much historical volume traded between the current price and that zone, the price can move quickly once momentum takes hold. This is precisely the type of situation where an excessive reaction could result from a liquidity spike. This concept is supported by volume behavior.
Even though there hasn't been much activity overall, recent candles show abrupt spikes in buying interest, indicating that bigger players are exploring the market rather than making a complete commitment. This frequently occurs prior to high-impact sessions, particularly on Mondays when new funds arrive following the weekend lull. SHIB is in a position to react forcefully if liquidity increases at the start of the week.
Another important factor is volatility. Weeks have passed since SHIB's volatility began to decline, and lengthy compression phases seldom end permanently. Volatility usually makes a strong comeback. A breakout could spread swiftly as short-term sellers are driven out due to the lack of significant overhead resistance and the amount of resting liquidity that is probably sitting above the current price.
A rally is not assured by this. Failure to maintain short-term support would render the setup invalid because the larger trend is still brittle. However, SHIB is no longer up against significant structural resistance from a risk-reward standpoint. It is waiting for fuel instead.
Bitcoin is struggling
As the price of Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum near the upper end of its recent range, investors' patience is once again being put to the test. The market is now exhibiting obvious signs of fatigue following a robust run that drove Bitcoin into six-figure territory.
Failure to reach higher highs and repeated rejection near important moving averages indicate that upside strength is waning rather than increasing. Technically speaking, Bitcoin is still limited below the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, which are currently serving as strong dynamic resistance.
Recent candles exhibit long upper wicks, classic distribution behavior, and every attempt to push higher has been immediately met with selling pressure. Although it is still in place, the short-term uptrend that emerged from the December lows is brittle and highly reliant on ongoing buyer participation. Another issue is volume. Volume did not significantly increase while the price attempted to return to higher levels.
Rarely is that divergence bullish. Confirmation is necessary for strong rallies, and at the moment, Bitcoin is primarily driven by thin liquidity rather than conviction. This increases the possibility that recent upside attempts are not the beginning of a new leg higher but rather corrective bounces.
Additionally, momentum indicators show caution. Without any follow-through, the RSI is in neutral-to-overbought territory, which frequently precedes either consolidation or a more significant decline. Although Bitcoin is not collapsing, it is evidently finding it difficult to support higher prices given the state of the market.
This environment requires investors to be realistic. Capital is likely to shift elsewhere or stay on the sidelines if Bitcoin is unable to recover and maintain above significant resistance levels. This could result in deeper retracements for both Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market, particularly for high-beta altcoins whose performance depends on Bitcoin's strength.
Although a macro top has not yet been confirmed, this indicates that the easy upside is currently lost. Investors should expect a market that penalizes overconfidence, increased volatility and slower price movement. Bitcoin is still in a precarious position rather than one that is ready for a breakout until volume increases again and resistance turns into support.