coindesk.com
Bitcoin’s BTC$96,729.76 next market phase will be defined less by whether investors believe in the asset and more by how much exposure they take, and through which vehicles, according to Ark Invest’s David Puell.
Puell, a research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at the asset management firm led by investor Cathie Wood, said bitcoin has crossed an important threshold into institutional maturity following the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 and the rapid growth of digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies.
“In prior cycles, a lot of the infrastructure was still being built,” Puell said. “Now the question is no longer if you invest in bitcoin, but how much bitcoin you want and through what vehicle," he told CoinDesk in an interview.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have quickly become one of the most consequential drivers of capital flows into the cryptocurrency since their regulatory approval in early 2024. Collectively, these products have attracted more than $50 billion in net inflows in roughly 18 months, underscoring a broad shift toward institutional and regulated access to bitcoin without direct self-custody.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have dominated that flow, helping fuel deeper liquidity and tighter supply, with some estimates showing these ETFs collectively controlling hundreds of thousands of bitcoins.
That shift has had a tangible impact on supply and demand. Puell said ETFs and digital asset treasury structures together have absorbed roughly 12% of bitcoin’s total supply, far exceeding expectations and becoming one of the largest drivers of price action through 2025, a trend that may continue in 2026.
Digital asset treasury companies are publicly traded firms whose core strategy is to hold bitcoin or other digital assets as a primary balance-sheet reserve to drive shareholder value.
At the same time, Puell noted a countervailing force. Long-term holders who acquired bitcoin more than a decade ago have become increasingly willing to take profits when prices reach new highs.
“In bull markets, early adopters will profit-take more aggressively toward the top,” Puell said. “In bear markets, they tend to hold on. These were the two big battling forces in 2025, where you had early adopters taking profits versus institutions buying (via ETFs and DATs).
Despite those dynamics, Ark remains confident in its long-term valuation framework. The firm’s 2030 bitcoin price targets project a bear case of roughly $300,000, a base case near $710,000, and a bull case of around $1.5 million per bitcoin, according to its published valuation model.
Puell said digital gold, bitcoin’s role as a store of value, contributes the most to Ark’s bear and base cases, while institutional investment accounts for the largest share of upside in the bull scenario.
One supporting factor is bitcoin’s increasingly “vaulted” supply. Puell pointed to on-chain data showing network liveliness hovering near 60% since early 2018, which Ark interprets as roughly 36% of bitcoin’s supply being effectively locked away by long-term holders.
Macro conditions could further support bitcoin over the coming years. Puell said the end of U.S. monetary tightening could usher in renewed liquidity, a backdrop that has historically favored risk assets like bitcoin.
“For bitcoin, U.S. liquidity matters more than global M2,” Puell said, noting that other nations often follow the U.S., given its status as the world’s largest capital base.
Another structural shift is bitcoin’s changing volatility profile. Puell said volatility has fallen to historical lows, reinforcing Ark’s view that bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns are improving.
“In previous cycles, 30% to 50% drawdowns during bull markets were normal,” Puell said. “Since the 2022 bottom, bitcoin hasn’t seen a pullback larger than about 36%, which is atypical.”
That decline in volatility, along with less severe drawdowns, could broaden bitcoin’s appeal to more conservative investors who were previously deterred by catastrophic risk.
“You now have more sophisticated investors who don’t compound aggressively into parabolic moves and save cash to deploy during drawdowns," Puell said. “That flattens volatility and shortens recovery periods.”
Puell also pointed to regulatory clarity under the Trump administration, the emergence of staking-related ETFs, and growing state-level interest, with Texas as a prominent example, as longer-term structural tailwinds. While a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve would not create new demand, Puell said it would reinforce a strong holder base unlikely to sell.
Ark has made one notable adjustment to its outlook. Some of the emerging market safe-haven demand once expected to flow into bitcoin has instead shifted toward stablecoins. Puell said that dilution is largely offset by stronger-than-expected interest from gold-related use cases within Ark’s model.
“We’re broadly sticking to our guns on the targets,” Puell said. “The composition of demand has evolved, but the long-term thesis remains intact.”
Looking beyond 2026, Puell said Ark remains focused on a five-year horizon rather than short-term price calls, arguing that bitcoin’s maturation into a lower-volatility, institutionally held asset could ultimately prove as important as any single price level.
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