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VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin could reach a valuation of nearly $2.9 million by 2050 under the firm’s long-term base-case scenario.
This projection is driven by $BTC’s adoption as a settlement currency for 5% to 10% of global trade and its emergence as a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.
VanEck’s Bold Long-Term Call
In a note detailing VanEck’s 25-year capital market assumptions, Sigel projected a 15% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin between 2026 and 2050, as he framed the asset’s long-term value around structural monetary adoption rather than short-term price cycles.
The analysis treats Bitcoin as a non-sovereign monetary asset whose valuation cannot be captured by traditional equity-based models such as discounted cash flow or price-to-earnings ratios. Instead, VanEck based this analysis on $BTC’s potential penetration into two addressable markets, which are global trade settlement and official reserve assets held by central banks.
Based on these assumptions, the asset manager’s base case results in a $2.9 million price per $BTC by 2050, using a baseline price of approximately $88,000 as of December 31, 2025, solely to calculate implied growth rates. VanEck also presented alternative scenarios to frame risk.
In a bear case, where adoption stalls and Bitcoin fails to meaningfully penetrate either trade settlement or reserve assets, the firm estimated a 2% compound annual growth rate and a price of roughly $130,000 by 2050. At the upper end, VanEck described a bull-case scenario in which Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Under this scenario, $BTC’s price would reach about $53.4 million, which implies a 29% annualized return and requires it to rival or exceed gold’s role as a global reserve asset.
Fragile Market Conditions
While VanEck focuses on multi-decade adoption scenarios, near-term market structure tells a different story. Matrixport, for one, stated that Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook is less about a new cycle and more about “tactical” trading. The firm explained that the crypto asset has entered a materially different regime than past early-cycle rebounds, and broader structural indicators still appear unfavorable for a bull market despite some improving technical signals.
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Declining volumes, weakening capital inflows, and historical behavior after a break below the one-year moving average point to a more selective and challenging environment ahead. On-chain data further validates this view and shows large, experienced holders steadily distributing supply while new address growth and realized-cap inflows remain muted, which indicates limited fresh capital and low participation from new investors.