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Macro analyst Luke Gromen has stated that he will sell off a large portion of his Bitcoin (BTC) holdings between mid-to-late November 2025.
Gromen, who has long held an optimistic stance on both Bitcoin and precious metals, sparked a significant debate in the market with this move. In his latest video, published in 2025, Gromen systematically explained the background of this decision for the first time.
Gromen specifically stated that his decision did not stem from a loss of long-term faith in Bitcoin. He clarified that he hadn’t completely closed his Bitcoin positions, explaining that the primary reason for the sell-off wasn’t price movements or emotional reactions, but a change in his assessment of “timing.” According to the analyst, the key was accurately assessing which assets become more vulnerable at which stage within the macroeconomic cycle.
Gromen admitted that he had long viewed Bitcoin as the “last liquidity alarm” still functioning properly in the global financial system, but that he had misjudged its behavior in a deflationary environment. He said he previously thought Bitcoin would act as a neutral reserve asset during deflationary periods, but in reality, it performed similarly to high-beta tech stocks. He argued that this was not an opinion, but a phenomenon observed in recent years.
According to the analyst, the main reason for this is that today’s global economy has an extremely leveraged structure. In such a system, assets have to be valued according to their position in the capital structure. When liquidity is abundant and prices are rising, the “equity layer” of the capital structure performs best. However, when deflation begins, this layer takes the biggest hit. Gromen stated that in the current system, Bitcoin effectively resides in this equity layer and therefore becomes more vulnerable during periods of deflation.
The key factor that changed Gromen’s perspective was artificial intelligence and robotics. According to the analyst, these technologies create a productivity-driven and “exponential” deflationary pressure independent of demand cycles. This pressure has a rapid and widespread impact on employment, especially among young people. In such an environment, Gromen states that all policies except for “nuclear-level” monetary expansion are effectively creating a tightening effect, and that in the short term, the privileged capital class will feel the most pressure. This is the main reason for his caution regarding Bitcoin.
The macro analyst stated that he did not reject Bitcoin, but merely re-evaluated the chronological order. Gromen, who still believes that deflation will inevitably lead to a crisis followed by large-scale monetary interventions, said he thinks this step will come later than he expected. He stated that he assumed policymakers would act quickly, but this did not happen, and that during this process, he preferred to temporarily exit the most vulnerable layer of the capital structure.
*This is not investment advice.