Experienced Analyst: “Bitcoin Needs to Settle in This Region Before Going Up”

Crypto analyst James Van Straten, in his assessment of Bitcoin’s recent price movements, noted that the $70,000–$80,000 range has historically been one of the least consolidated zones.

According to Van Straten, Bitcoin spent only 28 trading days in this range, suggesting that technical support at those levels may be weak.

After reaching an all-time high in October, Bitcoin retreated and traded in the $80,000–$90,000 range for much of December. This correction pushed the price into a region where markets have spent relatively less time in the past. The fact that Bitcoin traded in the $50,000–$70,000 range for much longer periods, particularly throughout 2024, suggests that the support structure in the upper bands is less developed compared to the lower price regions.

Van Straten analyzed CME Bitcoin futures data from the past five years to identify the price ranges where consolidation occurred most frequently. According to the data, excluding very short periods of trading above record highs, Bitcoin spent the least amount of time in the $70,000–$79,999 range, recording only 28 trading days. In the $80,000–$89,999 range, this period was limited to 49 days. In contrast, lower price zones such as $30,000–$39,999 and $40,000–$49,999 saw approximately 200 trading days, indicating that these areas were repeatedly tested, forming strong consolidation zones.

This chart is also supported by on-chain data. UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shared by Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin supply is significantly low, in the $70,000–$80,000 range. URPD analyzes the most recent price levels at which the current Bitcoin supply changed hands, revealing cost concentrations in the market.

When both futures and URPD data are considered together, it is stated that if Bitcoin enters a new correction phase, the $70,000–$80,000 range could be a critical consolidation zone where the price needs to spend more time establishing stronger support. According to Van Straten, achieving a sustained upward move without spending sufficient time in this range could be technically difficult.

*This is not investment advice.