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Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace with traditional financial markets throughout the year. Technology stocks dominated investor attention as artificial intelligence optimism fueled strong equity rallies. During this period, Bitcoin failed to match that momentum and significantly lagged behind major indices. This underperformance sparked debate around whether digital assets lost their appeal. VanEck offers a different interpretation rooted in long-term market cycles. The firm’s head of multi-asset solutions believes the recent divergence reflects temporary market rotation. He argues that leadership shifts regularly across asset classes. Periods of weakness often plant the seeds for future recoveries.
VanEck now expects conditions to change meaningfully over the next two years. The firm projects a Bitcoin 2026 rebound following this prolonged consolidation phase. At the same time, VanEck forecasts a major rally in gold prices. Together, these expectations signal a broader shift toward hard assets.
LATEST: 📈 VanEck's head of multi-asset solutions says Bitcoin is set for a sharp 2026 rebound after lagging the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50% this year, while gold is expected to hit $5,000. pic.twitter.com/k3MlTbyt2K
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Why Bitcoin Lagged the Nasdaq This Year
The Nasdaq 100 performance remained exceptionally strong as investors chased growth-driven technology stocks. Artificial intelligence companies captured institutional capital and dominated earnings narratives. This environment left little room for alternative assets like Bitcoin. Risk capital favored predictable revenue over speculative exposure.
High interest rates also reduced appetite for volatile investments. Investors prioritized assets offering near-term clarity and stable returns. Bitcoin traded within a narrow range while equities climbed steadily. That contrast amplified perceptions of underperformance.
VanEck emphasizes that such gaps rarely persist forever. Markets eventually rebalance as valuations stretch and expectations adjust. Assets left behind often attract renewed interest during the next phase. This pattern forms the foundation of the Bitcoin 2026 rebound thesis.
The Case for a Bitcoin 2026 Rebound
VanEck bases its outlook on repeated historical patterns. Bitcoin has experienced similar phases of underperformance during previous cycles. Each period eventually gave way to sharp recoveries once macro conditions improved. The firm expects history to rhyme once again.
Liquidity dynamics play a central role in this view. Lower interest rates typically increase demand for scarce assets. Bitcoin benefits from fixed supply and global accessibility. These qualities become attractive during easing monetary environments.
Institutional participation also strengthens the rebound case. Large investors prefer accumulation during extended consolidation phases. Bitcoin’s recent stagnation offers such an opportunity. VanEck expects patient capital to re-enter before momentum turns visible.
Asset Rotation Points Toward Hard Assets
VanEck highlights growing signs of asset rotation across global markets. Investors increasingly reassess equity valuations after extended rallies. Capital often shifts toward assets perceived as long-term stores of value. Bitcoin and gold both fit that profile.
The Nasdaq 100 performance may moderate as profit-taking emerges. When leadership cools, diversification demand typically rises. Bitcoin benefits from this search for alternatives. Its unique positioning separates it from traditional asset classes.
Correlation patterns also support this transition. Bitcoin behaves differently during liquidity-driven expansions. VanEck expects diversification strategies to regain importance. This environment favors the Bitcoin 2026 rebound narrative.
Institutional Strategy and Market Psychology
Institutional investors rarely chase assets during peak optimism. They prefer building exposure during periods of doubt and low enthusiasm. Bitcoin currently fits this accumulation profile. VanEck expects institutions to move quietly before retail sentiment shifts.
Market psychology also supports this perspective. Negative narratives often dominate near cycle lows. Long-term investors recognize these phases as opportunities. VanEck views current skepticism as a constructive signal.
The Bitcoin 2026 rebound depends on patience rather than speculation. Investors who understand market cycles tend to benefit most. VanEck’s outlook reflects disciplined positioning rather than short-term excitement.