cryptobriefing.com
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin's hash rate dropped 4%, the largest decline since April 2024.
- Historical data analyzed by VanEck shows price gains often follow hash rate drops.
Bitcoin’s network hash rate dropped 4% over the last month, the steepest decline since April 2024. VanEck notes that negative hash rate growth has historically led to strong $BTC rebounds over the following three to six months.
According to VanEck’s Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, the 30-day drop in hash rate reflects miner capitulation driven by deteriorating profitability, as higher-cost operators power down in response to post-halving revenue pressure, weaker Bitcoin prices, and power being reallocated toward higher-margin AI workloads.
VanEck’s analysis shows that Bitcoin tends to perform better after short-term drops in hash rate.
90-day forward $BTC returns were positive 65% of the time, compared with 54% when the hash rate was rising. Over 180 days, negative 30-day hash rate growth corresponded with positive returns 77% of the time.
On average, Bitcoin has gained 72% over 180 days following periods when mining activity declined over 30 days, compared with 48% when activity increased, according to analysts.
Bitcoin was trading at about $88,000 at the time of reporting, down 1% in the last 24 hours, per CoinGecko.
Analysts are split on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook, with a growing number forecasting a pullback to the $65,000 level.