coindesk.com
Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin's $BTC$89,583.57 signature growth parabola has fractured, opening the door to a brutal slide potentially down to $25,000.
Brandt's call hinges on exponential decay in bitcoin's bull cycles. The cryptocurrency has historically rallied hard in 12-18 months after halving and subsequently slipped into a bear market, characterized by 70% to 80% pullback from record highs.
However, each bull cycle has seen diminishing returns. For instance, following the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, $BTC chalked out a 100-fold rise to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold rise and the 2020 halving brought an eight-fold rise.
The latest post-halving cycle, which kicked off following the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices double to a record high of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have pulled back to just under $90,000, slicing through the parabola curve that has marked massive price uptrends during each prior cycle.
"The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240," Brandt said on X.
Brandt lays it out on a log-scale chart stretching back to 2010: four steepening pink arcs, each tracing a cycle's manic vertical climb. Parabolas don't bend gently, they accelerate skyward, just like $BTC's history of rapid gains.
Meanwhile, crosses below that support line have marked end of bull runs. The slide from October highs has done that, knifing under the fourth arc.