crypto-economy.com
TL;DR
- Cathie Wood says Bitcoin no longer follows its traditional four-year cycle as institutional capital reshapes market behavior.
- ETF inflows and long-term holdings reduce volatility and make sharp drawdowns less frequent.
- Analysts argue that Bitcoin is entering a phase defined by deep liquidity and sustained accumulation rather than retail-driven swings.
Cathie Wood argues that Bitcoin is moving into a different phase, where the old four-year pattern loses relevance as major funds, banks, and global asset managers take a larger role. The market now shows deeper liquidity and milder retracements, shifting how investors interpret long-term price behavior.
Institutional Demand Reshapes Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle
Wood said this week that corporate capital and large asset managers are altering Bitcoin’s historical dynamics. Her comments align with recent data showing sustained buying across spot ETFs and regulated crypto products. This continuous flow softens movements that once depended on scheduled mining reward reductions.
Ark Invest has expanded its exposure to crypto-related companies, reflecting the belief that liquid supply continues to tighten as institutions hold positions for extended periods. Several market models indicate a gradual decline in volatility, a pattern that historically appeared only in late stages of previous cycles.
Market Structure Shifts With Broader Liquidity Pools
The debate is growing among analysts. Some maintain the halving still plays a role, while others argue that institutional flows now dominate market behavior. Reports from major banks show that ETF demand reduces the direct influence of the halving on circulating supply.
Data from on-chain firms suggest that the daily reduction of 450 BTC after the halving is small compared with the asset’s multi-trillion market value and the billions held in ETFs. Platforms tracking long-term holders continue to observe steady accumulation, accompanied by a decline in short-term speculative activity.
Models such as the Bitcoin Power Law propose that price growth follows a long-term trajectory influenced more by time than by fixed windows. This view gained traction after Bitcoin reached $122,000 in July with a steadier pattern and reduced retail-driven spikes.
While some analysts say the classic cycle remains present, more experts argue that Bitcoin is shifting toward longer and broader trends. Drawdowns appear shallower and rallies unfold over extended periods, supporting strategies based on gradual accumulation. Wood maintains that a market anchored by institutions represents a structural change that will continue shaping Bitcoin’s direction in the coming years.